Race profile

Colorado

Governor race — CO

The question

Colorado: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.4%

    Phil Weiser

  • Republican 42.2%

    Victor Marx

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereColorado 57.4%42.2%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +8.3 48.2% −6.0 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Magellan Strategies Jul 30 – Aug 12 1,136 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Colorado elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 19 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Jared Polis

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Phil Weiser

  • Other Open seat

    Greg Lopez

  • Other Open seat

    Jeff Peckman

  • Republican Open seat

    Victor Marx

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
19.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026