Colorado

Governor’s race · Colorado

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 57.9%

Phil Weiser
Republican 41.7%

Victor Marx

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 95% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	99%
Orbit	Democrat	95%
50/50 blend	Democrat	97%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Colorado	57.9%	41.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+7.9	46.4%−4.8	3.5%−3.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research Co.	Oct 31, 2026 – Nov 2, 2026	450	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 38	See the poll
Yougov University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab	9–Oct 20, 2026	710	likely voters	Democrat 57 Republican 37	See the poll
Lake Research Partners Ballot Initiative Strategy Center	16–Sep 30, 2026	600	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 36	See the poll
Magellan Strategies	Jul 30, 2025 – Aug 12, 2025	1,136	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Jared Polis · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Phil Weiser
source
Other Open seat

Eric Mulder
source
Other Open seat

Erik Underwood
source
Other Open seat

Greg Lopez
source
Other Open seat

Jeff Peckman
source
Other Open seat

Stephen Hamilton
source
Republican Open seat

Victor Marx
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 19.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 16.3 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026