Oklahoma
Governor’s race · Oklahoma
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 61% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 61% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 78% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 57.3% | 42.3% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.4%+10.9 | 50.0%−7.7 | 3.6%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current governor
Kevin Stitt · Republican
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2022)
The Republicans won by 13.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated