Race profile

Oklahoma

Governor race — OK

The question

Oklahoma: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.4%

    Mike Mazzei

  • Democrat 35.8%

    Cyndi Munson

  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereOklahoma 61.4%35.8%2.8%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +13.2 49.1% −13.4 2.7% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oklahoma elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 14 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Kevin Stitt

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cyndi Munson

  • Other Open seat

    Jerry Griffin

  • Other Open seat

    Robert Brooks Sr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Mike Mazzei

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026