Alabama

Governor’s race · Alabama

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.1%

Tommy Tuberville
Democrat 43.6%

Doug Jones

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 85% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	97%
Orbit	Republican	85%
50/50 blend	Republican	91%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Alabama	56.1%	43.6%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+9.6	50.0%−6.5	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Blueprint Polling	22–Oct 24, 2026	695	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 45	See the poll
Cygnal Political Alabama Daily News \| Gray Television	16–Oct 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 40	See the poll
The Alabama Poll	15–Oct 16, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 39	See the poll
Rmg Research Alabama Policy Action \| Napolitan News Service	21–Sep 25, 2026	800	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 37	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	8–Jul 11, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 41	See the poll
Cygnal Political	12–Nov 13, 2025	605	likely voters	Republican 53 Democrat 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Kay Ivey · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Doug Jones
source
Republican Open seat

Tommy Tuberville
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 37.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026