Race profile

Alabama

Governor race — AL

The question

Alabama: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.5%

    Tommy Tuberville

  • Democrat 42.1%

    Doug Jones

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAlabama 57.5%42.1%0.4%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +9.3 49.1% −7.0 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation. 8–Jul 11 601 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 41
link
Cygnal Political 12–Nov 13 605 LV
Republican 53 Democrat 34
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Alabama elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 38 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Kay Ivey

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Doug Jones

  • Republican Open seat

    Tommy Tuberville

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.4 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026