Race profile
Arkansas
The question
Arkansas: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.1
- P(close race)
- 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereArkansas | 53.5% | 39.5% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 48.2% +5.3 | 49.1% −9.6 | 2.7% +4.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics | 11–Aug 12 | 1,217 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Arkansas elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 28 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting governor
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Party Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
-
Democrat Challenger Fredrick Love
- Other Challenger
Colt Shelby
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026