Arkansas
Governor’s race · Arkansas
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 87% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 87% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 93% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 54.2% | 34.9% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.4%+7.8 | 50.0%−15.1 | 3.6%+7.3 |
Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current governor
Sarah Huckabee Sanders · Republican
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2022)
The Republicans won by 27.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated