Race profile
New Mexico
The question
New Mexico: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Competitive
- Probability
- 91%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.4
- P(close race)
- 24%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNew Mexico | 54.7% | 44.9% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +5.5 | 48.2% −3.2 | 2.7% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal | 21–Aug 28 | 516 | LV | link | |
| Bsp Research | Jul 22 – Aug 7 | 800 | RV | link | |
| Mclaughlin & Associates | 13–Jul 15 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
New Mexico elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 6 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting governor
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Deb Haaland
-
Republican Open seat Gregg Hull
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026