New Mexico

Governor’s race · New Mexico

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 54.0%

Deb Haaland
Republican 45.6%

Gregg Hull

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 82% chance (89% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	89%
Orbit	Democrat	82%
50/50 blend	Democrat	85%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
New Mexico	54.0%	45.6%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+4.0	46.4%−0.8	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	1–Oct 9, 2026	1,125	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42	See the poll
Surveyusa KOB-TV (Albuquerque)	25–Sep 30, 2026	567	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
Research & Polling Inc. Albuquerque Journal	21–Aug 28, 2026	516	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Bsp Research	Jul 22, 2026 – Aug 7, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 41 Republican 24	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates	13–Jul 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Deb Haaland
source
Republican Open seat

Gregg Hull
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 6.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.3 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026