Race profile

Wisconsin

Governor race — WI

The question

Wisconsin: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.0%

    David Crowley

  • Republican 47.6%

    Tom Tiffany

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereWisconsin 52.0%47.6%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +2.9 48.2% −0.6 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

12 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Marquette University Law School 12–Aug 20 891 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 44
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers 14–Aug 18 1,187 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Platform Communications Badger Battleground Poll 12–Aug 13 500 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 44
link
Gbao Protect Our Wisconsin Jul 30 – Aug 3 800 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Rmg Research Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service 20–Jul 24 800 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 43
link
Marquette University Law School 8–Jul 16 695 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Wedgewood Polls The Isthmus Political Report 2–Jul 4 707 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 42
link
Rmg Research Napolitan News Service 10–Apr 14 800 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 43
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers 13–Mar 19 1,168 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 41
link
Patriot Polling 10–Mar 16 812 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 42
link
Impact Research The Long Run PAC 2–Oct 8 500 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 44
link
Platform Communications Badger Battleground Poll 28–Sep 30 500 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 40
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Wisconsin elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 3 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting governor

Tony Evers

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    David Crowley

  • Republican Open seat

    Tom Tiffany

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
3.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026