Race profile

Minnesota

Governor race — MN

The question

Minnesota: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
31%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.2%

    Amy Klobuchar

  • Republican 45.4%

    Lisa Demuth

  • Other 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMinnesota 53.2%45.4%1.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +4.1 48.2% −2.8 2.7% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

8 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Co/Efficient 14–Sep 15 833 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers Aug 31 – Sep 2 1,192 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 37
link
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis 13–Aug 17 661 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 36
link
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE-TV | Minneapolis Star Tribune | U. of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication 8–Jun 10 800 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 40
link
Emerson College 6–Feb 8 1,000 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 38
link
Surveyusa KAAL-TV | KSTP-TV Minneapolis | WDIO-TV Duluth 27–Jan 30 575 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 34
link
Rmg Research Alpha News 10–Dec 16 800 RV
Republican 46 Democrat 40
link
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis 15–Sep 18 568 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Minnesota elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 8 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting governor

Tim Walz

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Amy Klobuchar

  • Republican Open seat

    Lisa Demuth

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026