Race profile

New York

Governor race — NY

The question

New York: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
19%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 54.8%

    Kathy Hochul incumbent

  • Republican 44.8%

    Bruce Blakeman

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNew York 54.8%44.8%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +5.6 48.2% −3.3 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

32 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Mclaughlin & Associates 27–Aug 31 800 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy 19–Aug 21 505 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 34
link
Siena University 3–Aug 6 811 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 39
link
Red Oak Strategic Strong and Safe New York 7–Jul 12 2,000 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link
Co/Efficient Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers Jun 30 – Jul 2 1,085 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 41
link
Siena University 17–Jun 23 1,120 RV
Democrat 52 Republican 32
link
Siena University 27–Apr 30 806 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 33
link
Echelon Insights Tusk Strategies 24–Mar 26 500 LV
Democrat 55 Republican 40
link
Siena University 23–Mar 26 804 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 34
link
Mclaughlin & Associates 4–Mar 8 800 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 43
link
Siena University 23–Feb 26 805 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 31
link
Marist University 16–Feb 19 1,442 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 33
link
Mad Global Strategy Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future 2–Feb 4 600 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 34
link
Siena University 26–Jan 28 802 RV
Democrat 54 Republican 28
link
John Zogby Strategies 6–Jan 8 844 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 34
link
Siena University 8–Dec 12 801 RV
Democrat 50 Republican 25
link
Siena University 10–Nov 12 802 RV
Democrat 52 Republican 32
link
J.L. Partners 9–Nov 10 500 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 36
link
Manhattan Institute 22–Oct 26 900 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 42
link
Grayhouse 20–Sep 26 1,250 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 43
link
Siena University 8–Sep 10 802 RV
Democrat 52 Republican 27
link
Siena University 4–Aug 7 813 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 31
link
Siena University 23–Jun 26 800 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 19
link
Siena University 12–May 15 805 RV
Democrat 36
link
Harper Polling 7–May 9 600 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 39
link
Co/Efficient 1–May 2 1,163 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 42
link
Grayhouse 22–Apr 24 600 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 38
link
Siena University 14–Apr 16 802 RV
Democrat 39
link
Siena University 2–Mar 6 806 RV
Democrat 34
link
Citizen Data Unite NY Jan 30 – Feb 10 1,000 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 38
link
Siena University 27–Jan 30 803 RV
Democrat 31
link
Siena University 2–Dec 5 834 RV
Democrat 33
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

New York elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 6 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting governor

Kathy Hochul

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Kathy Hochul

  • Other Challenger

    Amy Taylor

  • Republican Challenger

    Bruce Blakeman

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.7 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026