Race profile

Massachusetts

Governor race — MA

The question

Massachusetts: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.4%

    Maura Healey incumbent

  • Republican 35.2%

    Mike Minogue

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMassachusetts 64.4%35.2%0.4%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +15.2 48.2% −12.9 2.7% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

10 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
University Of New Hampshire 7News 20–Aug 24 881 LV
Democrat 55 Republican 28
link
Yougov UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV 5–Aug 12 800 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 32
link
University Of New Hampshire 18–Jun 23 608 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 32
link
Suffolk University Boston Globe 8–Jun 12 500 RV
Democrat 56 Republican 29
link
Polity Research Consulting Retailers Association of Massachusetts Apr 29 – May 7 608 RV
Democrat 59 Republican 30
link
University Of New Hampshire 16–Apr 20 599 LV
Democrat 51 Republican 29
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 612 LV
Democrat 58 Republican 28
link
Yougov UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV 21–Oct 29 800 Adults
Democrat 48 Republican 27
link
Advantage Inc. Fiscal Alliance Foundation 24–Sep 25 750 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 31
link
Yougov UMass Amherst 14–Feb 20 700 Adults
Democrat 44 Republican 12
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Massachusetts elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 29 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Maura Healey

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Maura Healey

  • Other Challenger

    Andrea James

  • Other Challenger

    Muhammed Kokonezis-Hanino

  • Republican Challenger

    Mike Minogue

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
29.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026