Massachusetts

Governor’s race · Massachusetts

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 61.3%

Maura Healey, incumbent
Republican 35.1%

Mike Minogue
Other 3.6%

Andrea James Independent

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Massachusetts	61.3%	35.1%	3.6%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+11.3	46.4%−11.4	3.5%+0.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

16 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	894	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 36	See the poll
Suffolk University Boston Globe	14–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 36	See the poll
Umass Lowell	7–Oct 18, 2026	850	likely voters	Democrat 57 Republican 29	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	5–Oct 12, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 57 Republican 32	See the poll
Massinc Polling Group Commonwealth Beacon	14–Sep 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	557	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 38	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire 7News	20–Aug 24, 2026	881	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 30	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	5–Aug 12, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 33	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	608	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 32	See the poll
Suffolk University Boston Globe	8–Jun 12, 2026	500	registered voters	Democrat 56 Republican 31	See the poll
Polity Research Consulting Retailers Association of Massachusetts	Apr 29, 2026 – May 7, 2026	608	registered voters	Democrat 58 Republican 31	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	16–Apr 20, 2026	599	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	12–Feb 16, 2026	612	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 27	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst \| WCVB-TV	21–Oct 29, 2025	800	adults	Democrat 51 Republican 26	See the poll
Advantage Inc. Fiscal Alliance Foundation	24–Sep 25, 2025	750	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 31	See the poll
Yougov UMass Amherst	14–Feb 20, 2025	700	adults	Democrat 44 Republican 12	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Maura Healey · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Maura Healey
source
Other Challenger

Andrea James
source
Republican Challenger

Mike Minogue
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 29.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 26.2 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026