Who else forecasts the 2026 governor races, and where do they stand?

Chance that Democrats control it, side by side

Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.

• Kalshi 82.9%
• ElectIndex 72.0%
• Vote-Scope (ours) 71.9%

How solid the races are

Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.

• Solid D
• Likely D
• Lean D
• Toss-up
• Lean R
• Likely R
• Solid R

• Vote-Scope (ours) 36 races · as of November 2, 2026 10 5 4 5 3 7
• Vote-Scope, common scale 36 races · as of November 2, 2026 11 5 5 4 3 7
• Cook Political Report 36 races · as of October 23, 2026 13 6 3 3 4 7
• Decision Desk HQ 36 races · as of October 26, 2026 6 9 5 5 4 5

The “common scale” row sorts our own race-by-race probabilities with a single set of thresholds: safe at 95% or more, likely from 80%, lean from 60%, toss-up below 60%. Split Ticket uses the same cut-offs; FiftyPlusOne moves from lean to likely at 75%. Expert ratings are shown as their authors publish them.

What the other forecasters currently say

Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.

Prediction markets

• Kalshi 82.9% Gap vs Vote-Scope -11.0 · as of November 2, 2026 · was 81.2% on November 1, 2026

Other forecasts worth checking

They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.

• Race to the WH
• VoteHub
• Split Ticket (The Argument)
• Theo Elections
• Call the Map
• Sabato's Crystal Ball
• Inside Elections
• 270toWin