MLB Desk · 2026 season
Who has the cleanest path to the World Series?
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations nightly. Pythagenpat strength, log5 matchups, 160 games left on the schedule.
Reading as of September 16, 2026 · 14:58 UTC
World Series favorite · NL Central
🍺 Milwaukee Brewers
Pennant: 35.6% · Division: 100.0% · Playoffs: 100.0%
Record: 94-57 · 100.3 expected wins
Runner-up · NL West
🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers
Pennant: 29.1% · Division: 100.0% · Playoffs: 100.0%
Record: 92-59 · 98.8 expected wins
Canadian focus · AL East
🍁 Toronto Blue Jays
Pennant: 1.3% · Division: 0.0% · Playoffs: 18.9%
Record: 75-77 · 80.0 expected wins
The board of 30
Every team, every probability.
Click a header to sort — playoffs, division or World Series. AL/NL filter and sort travel in the link.
| Team | Record | Strk | Exp. wins | Playoffs | Division | Bye | Pennant | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers NL Central | 94-57 | W1 | 100.3 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.6% | 35.6% | 22.1% |
| 🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West | 92-59 | W2 | 98.8 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 95.2% | 29.1% | 17.9% |
| ☀️ Tampa Bay Rays AL East | 91-59 | W4 | 97.3 | 100.0% | 88.5% | 88.5% | 29.7% | 13.8% |
| 🎩 New York Yankees AL East | 88-63 | W3 | 94.2 | 100.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 22.4% | 10.7% |
| 🪓 Atlanta Braves NL East | 89-63 | W1 | 94.6 | 100.0% | 99.8% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 7.4% |
| ⚫ Chicago White Sox AL Central | 77-74 | L1 | 83.1 | 89.6% | 71.9% | 52.7% | 15.3% | 5.8% |
| 🐻 Chicago Cubs NL Central | 84-68 | L1 | 89.4 | 99.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
| 🧦 Boston Red Sox AL East | 82-69 | L1 | 87.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 4.7% |
| 🛡️ Cleveland Guardians AL Central | 77-75 | W1 | 82.1 | 66.3% | 27.7% | 19.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% |
| 🔔 Philadelphia Phillies NL East | 83-68 | L1 | 88.4 | 95.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| 🚀 Houston Astros AL West | 76-75 | W1 | 81.6 | 79.0% | 73.2% | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% |
| 🌴 San Diego Padres NL West | 82-69 | L1 | 87.6 | 83.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| ⭐ Texas Rangers AL West | 75-76 | W3 | 80.7 | 41.4% | 26.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 🍁 Toronto Blue Jays AL East | 75-77 | L2 | 80.0 | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 🐍 Arizona Diamondbacks NL West | 80-72 | L1 | 85.0 | 21.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 🐅 Detroit Tigers AL Central | 72-79 | W6 | 77.7 | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 🐤 Baltimore Orioles AL East | 74-78 | W2 | 78.5 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| ❄️ Minnesota Twins AL Central | 70-81 | L3 | 75.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐘 Athletics AL West | 61-90 | L1 | 65.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🔴 Cincinnati Reds NL Central | 70-81 | L2 | 74.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ⛰️ Colorado Rockies NL West | 56-95 | W1 | 60.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 👑 Kansas City Royals AL Central | 66-85 | L3 | 71.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 😇 Los Angeles Angels AL West | 58-93 | W2 | 63.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐟 Miami Marlins NL East | 75-77 | W1 | 79.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🍎 New York Mets NL East | 69-82 | L3 | 74.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🏴☠️ Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central | 75-76 | L1 | 80.7 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🔱 Seattle Mariners AL West | 70-82 | L3 | 75.3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🌉 San Francisco Giants NL West | 63-89 | W1 | 68.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🐦 St. Louis Cardinals NL Central | 75-77 | L1 | 79.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🏛️ Washington Nationals NL East | 71-81 | W4 | 75.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Standings
Six divisions, two leagues.
American League
AL East
| 1 | ☀️ Tampa Bay Rays | 91-59 | 88.5% |
| 2 | 🎩 New York Yankees | 88-63 | 11.5% |
| 3 | 🧦 Boston Red Sox | 82-69 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🍁 Toronto Blue Jays | 75-77 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🐤 Baltimore Orioles | 74-78 | 0.0% |
AL Central
| 1 | ⚫ Chicago White Sox | 77-74 | 71.9% |
| 2 | 🛡️ Cleveland Guardians | 77-75 | 27.7% |
| 3 | 🐅 Detroit Tigers | 72-79 | 0.4% |
| 4 | ❄️ Minnesota Twins | 70-81 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 👑 Kansas City Royals | 66-85 | 0.0% |
AL West
| 1 | 🚀 Houston Astros | 76-75 | 73.2% |
| 2 | ⭐ Texas Rangers | 75-76 | 26.7% |
| 3 | 🔱 Seattle Mariners | 70-82 | 0.1% |
| 4 | 🐘 Athletics | 61-90 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 😇 Los Angeles Angels | 58-93 | 0.0% |
National League
NL East
| 1 | 🪓 Atlanta Braves | 89-63 | 99.8% |
| 2 | 🔔 Philadelphia Phillies | 83-68 | 0.2% |
| 3 | 🐟 Miami Marlins | 75-77 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🏛️ Washington Nationals | 71-81 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🍎 New York Mets | 69-82 | 0.0% |
NL Central
| 1 | 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers | 94-57 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🐻 Chicago Cubs | 84-68 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🏴☠️ Pittsburgh Pirates | 75-76 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🐦 St. Louis Cardinals | 75-77 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 🔴 Cincinnati Reds | 70-81 | 0.0% |
NL West
| 1 | 🔵 Los Angeles Dodgers | 92-59 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🌴 San Diego Padres | 82-69 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 🐍 Arizona Diamondbacks | 80-72 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 🌉 San Francisco Giants | 63-89 | 0.0% |
| 5 | ⛰️ Colorado Rockies | 56-95 | 0.0% |
Division % — 10,000 simulations · model pythagenpat+log5 v0.1 · 160 games remaining · source statsapi.mlb.com · run of September 16, 2026 · 14:58 UTC
Methodology after the signal
The model is pythagenpat + log5, v0.1.
The MLB desk simulates the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times nightly. Team strength comes from run differential via pythagenpat; every remaining game is decided by Bill James's log5 rule, then division and bye tiebreakers follow MLB rules.
- Pythagenpat estimates a team’s true level from runs scored and allowed — steadier than the record alone.
- Log5 turns two strengths into a game-by-game win probability, across the 160 remaining games.
- Playoffs, division, bye, pennant and World Series are counted on the same simulations — the columns are mutually consistent.
- Data from statsapi.mlb.com, refreshed nightly; the displayed run is from September 16, 2026 · 14:58 UTC.