Sports Scope · Track record

The model, on the record.

Sports Scope track record — covering NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. Every simulation run, every published call, tracked.

Model activity

Simulations run

10K

per model run, BSTS + GoalieLayer

Teams tracked

16

playoff-eligible teams in the current bracket

Model version

1.2

Last run: 2026-06-16

What Sports Scope covers

NHL Stanley Cup playoffs

Cup path probabilities.

A Bayesian structural time-series model (BSTS) combined with a goalie volatility layer (HDSV%) and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model tracks each team's path to the Stanley Cup with per-round probabilities updated after every series result.

Methodology

BSTS + GoalieLayer.

The model blends team-level EWMA game-log strength estimates with a goalie modifier derived from high-danger save percentage. Market signals from 2 books are blended in where available. No black-box inputs — every weight is documented.

Coming soon

Resolved series calls will appear here.

As the 2026 NHL playoffs advance, each series call — the model's pre-series winner pick and the actual outcome — will be logged in this archive. The format mirrors the political track-record: one row per call, confidence shown, result marked correct or miss.