Sports Scope · Track record
Sports Scope track record — covering NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. Every simulation run, every published call, tracked.
Model activity
Simulations run
per model run, BSTS + GoalieLayer
Teams tracked
playoff-eligible teams in the current bracket
Model version
1.2Last run: 2026-06-16
What Sports Scope covers
NHL Stanley Cup playoffs
A Bayesian structural time-series model (BSTS) combined with a goalie volatility layer (HDSV%) and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model tracks each team's path to the Stanley Cup with per-round probabilities updated after every series result.
Methodology
The model blends team-level EWMA game-log strength estimates with a goalie modifier derived from high-danger save percentage. Market signals from 2 books are blended in where available. No black-box inputs — every weight is documented.
Resolved calls
Each call is frozen from the git history that proves it was public before the result — model probability against the market at the same instant. Market reach is context, never a headline; sports and elections are counted separately.
Sports Scope
2026 FIFA World Cup · Pre-tournament — before the first match ✓
Before a single match, Vote-Scope ranked Spain the most likely champion of 48 teams (7.43%).
Spain won 1–0 over Argentina after extra time. ✓
2026 Stanley Cup · Final — series tied 2–2 ✓
With the final tied 2–2, Vote-Scope gave Carolina 66.7% while the market saw a coin flip (~36%).
Carolina won the Cup. The model beat the market. ✓