World Cup 2026 · the final · July 19
Spain–Argentina. The defending champion against the side that has not conceded in two knockout matches. After 102 games, the model sees a 53.59–46.41 final.
The final — model run 2026-07-15
Model edge · CONMEBOL · Group J
Final: 100% · Semi: 100% · QF: 100%
Round of 16: 100% · Knockout stage: 100%
Finalist · UEFA · Group H
Final: 100% · Semi: 100% · QF: 100%
Round of 16: 100% · Knockout stage: 100%
The model's read — run 2026-07-15
🇦🇷 Argentina enters the final with the model's narrow edge at 53.59%; 🇪🇸 Spain is at 46.41%. This is no longer a field forecast. It is one match, with every previous result already locked in.
The final is set: 🇪🇸 Spain vs 🇦🇷 Argentina on July 19.
A tournament that opened with 48 teams is down to its final 2: 🇦🇷 Argentina and 🇪🇸 Spain are the only sides still alive.
The race question
Vote-Scope makes Spain the narrow favorite, 53.59% to 46.41%. That is an edge, not a coronation: the defending world champion has already turned this tournament into another survival story.
How we got here
This is the 104th and final match of the first 48-team World Cup. Spain arrives as European champion and has not conceded in its last two knockout matches.
Argentina is trying to become only the third country to retain the trophy. Messi meets the nation where he built his legend, with one match left to extend it.
What just changed
15 JUL 2026
Argentina’s 2–1 semifinal win put the holders back in the final. Spain answered with a 2–0 win over France. The chaos of 48 teams has produced the cleanest possible ending: the world champion against the European champion.
Our read: Spain 53.59%. Argentina 46.41%. One match, almost a coin flip.
What can still change the race
Live & recent scores
Live scores
Loading scores…
Live data: ESPN public feed. Vote-Scope is not affiliated with any tournament rights-holder.
The last two — championship probabilities
Tournament phase: final · 50,000 simulations · 48 teams · 12 groups
| # | Country | Conf. | Grp | Champion% | Final% | Semi% | QF% | R16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | CONMEBOL | J | 53.59% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | 🇪🇸 Spain | UEFA | H | 46.41% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
By confederation — top contenders
UEFA
🇪🇸 Spain — 46.41% champion · 100% knockout stage
CONMEBOL
🇦🇷 Argentina — 53.59% champion · 100% knockout stage
Host nations · their tournament
Host · CONCACAF · Group A
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Host · CONCACAF · Group B
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Host · CONCACAF · Group D
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Group stage
Probability of advancing past the group stage (top 2 per group plus the 8 best third-placed teams).
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇲🇽 Mexico (host) | 100% | 100% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0% | 100% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 0% | 0% |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada (host) | 0% | 100% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 100% | 100% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 100% | 100% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 0% | 100% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 0% | 0% |
| 🏴 Scotland | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States (host) | 100% | 100% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 0% | 100% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 0% | 100% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 100% | 100% |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast | 0% | 100% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 100% | 100% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0% | 100% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 0% | 100% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 100% | 100% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 0% | 100% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 0% | 0% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 100% | 100% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 0% | 100% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 0% | 0% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | 100% | 100% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 0% | 100% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 0% | 100% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 100% | 100% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 0% | 100% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 0% | 100% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇩 Congo DR | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 100% | 100% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🏴 England | 100% | 100% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 0% | 100% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 0% | 100% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 0% | 0% |
Schedule
All times Eastern (ET).
Thu, Jun 11
Fri, Jun 12
Sat, Jun 13
Sun, Jun 14
Mon, Jun 15
Tue, Jun 16
Wed, Jun 17
Thu, Jun 18
Fri, Jun 19
Sat, Jun 20
Sun, Jun 21
Mon, Jun 22
Tue, Jun 23
Wed, Jun 24
Thu, Jun 25
Fri, Jun 26
Sat, Jun 27
Knockout bracket
Round of 32
16 matches
pens 3–4
pens 2–3
pens 2–4
Round of 16
8 matches
pens 4–3
Quarter-finals
4 matches
Semi-finals
2 matches
Final
1 matches
upcoming
Third place
Disclaimer: Vote-Scope is not affiliated with FIFA or any official tournament rights-holders. Country names are used for purely descriptive and informational purposes. This page presents statistical model output only and makes no claim to official tournament status or sponsorship.