World Cup 2026 · complete · July 19
Spain beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time. Spain ranked first in the opening model at 7.36%; the final pre-match update narrowly preferred Argentina 53.59–46.41.
Final pre-match snapshot — model run 2026-07-15
Model edge · CONMEBOL · Group J
Final: 100% · Semi: 100% · QF: 100%
Round of 16: 100% · Knockout stage: 100%
Finalist · UEFA · Group H
Final: 100% · Semi: 100% · QF: 100%
Round of 16: 100% · Knockout stage: 100%
The model's read — run 2026-07-15
🇦🇷 Argentina enters the final with the model's narrow edge at 53.59%; 🇪🇸 Spain is at 46.41%. This is no longer a field forecast. It is one match, with every previous result already locked in.
The final is set: 🇪🇸 Spain vs 🇦🇷 Argentina on July 19.
A tournament that opened with 48 teams is down to its final 2: 🇦🇷 Argentina and 🇪🇸 Spain are the only sides still alive.
The race question
Spain won 1–0 after extra time. Vote-Scope opened with Spain ranked first at 7.36%; after 102 matches, the final pre-match update narrowly preferred Argentina 53.59–46.41. Both snapshots remain part of the record.
How we got here
Spain became the first champion of the 48-team World Cup, adding the world title to its European crown.
The archive preserves the full path: opening probabilities, conditioned tournament updates and the final pre-match forecast.
What just changed
19 JUL 2026
Spain beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the 104th match. The result validates the opening strength ranking, while the last pre-final update shows why a single-match probability must never be described as certainty.
Our read: Tournament complete · model archived.
What can still change the race
Live & recent scores
Live scores
Loading scores…
Live data: ESPN public feed. Vote-Scope is not affiliated with any tournament rights-holder.
The last two — championship probabilities
Tournament phase: final · 50,000 simulations · 48 teams · 12 groups
| # | Country | Conf. | Grp | Champion% | Final% | Semi% | QF% | R16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | CONMEBOL | J | 53.59% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | 🇪🇸 Spain | UEFA | H | 46.41% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
By confederation — top contenders
UEFA
🇪🇸 Spain — 46.41% champion · 100% knockout stage
CONMEBOL
🇦🇷 Argentina — 53.59% champion · 100% knockout stage
Host nations · their tournament
Host · CONCACAF · Group A
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Host · CONCACAF · Group B
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Host · CONCACAF · Group D
Champion: 0% · Knockout stage: 100%
Final: 0% · Semi: 0%
Group stage
Probability of advancing past the group stage (top 2 per group plus the 8 best third-placed teams).
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇲🇽 Mexico (host) | 100% | 100% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0% | 100% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 0% | 0% |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada (host) | 0% | 100% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 100% | 100% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 100% | 100% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 0% | 100% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 0% | 0% |
| 🏴 Scotland | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States (host) | 100% | 100% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 0% | 100% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 0% | 100% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 100% | 100% |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast | 0% | 100% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 100% | 100% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0% | 100% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 0% | 100% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 100% | 100% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 0% | 100% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 0% | 0% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 100% | 100% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 0% | 100% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 0% | 0% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | 100% | 100% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 0% | 100% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 0% | 100% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 100% | 100% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 0% | 100% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 0% | 100% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇩 Congo DR | 0% | 100% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 100% | 100% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 0% | 0% |
| Country | 1st% | Advance% |
|---|---|---|
| 🏴 England | 100% | 100% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 0% | 100% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 0% | 100% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 0% | 0% |
Schedule
All times Eastern (ET).
Thu, Jun 11
Fri, Jun 12
Sat, Jun 13
Sun, Jun 14
Mon, Jun 15
Tue, Jun 16
Wed, Jun 17
Thu, Jun 18
Fri, Jun 19
Sat, Jun 20
Sun, Jun 21
Mon, Jun 22
Tue, Jun 23
Wed, Jun 24
Thu, Jun 25
Fri, Jun 26
Sat, Jun 27
Knockout bracket
Round of 32
16 matches
pens 3–4
pens 2–3
pens 2–4
Round of 16
8 matches
pens 4–3
Quarter-finals
4 matches
Semi-finals
2 matches
Final
1 matches
upcoming
Third place
Disclaimer: Vote-Scope is not affiliated with FIFA or any official tournament rights-holders. Country names are used for purely descriptive and informational purposes. This page presents statistical model output only and makes no claim to official tournament status or sponsorship.