Resolved special runoff · August 25, 2026 · Georgia 13

Blair won. We had Scott.

Everton Blair took the August 25 runoff with 9,895 votes to Marcye Scott's 8,447 — 53.95% to 46.05% on the Georgia Secretary of State's official count. Vote-Scope made Scott an 85.9% favorite by a mean margin of 7.9 points; she lost by 7.9 points, below the model's 5th percentile. The forecast is kept here unchanged, as the record of a miss.

Updated 2026-09-08 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only · 50,000 simulations

Projected winner

85.9%Marcye Scott win probability

Projected margin

8.0 ptsMarcye Scott

Election date

2026-08-25Marcye Scott vs Everton Blair

Field

Marcye Scott vs Everton Blairhead-to-head

Updated 2026-09-08 · 50,000 simulations

Head-to-head forecast

Candidate ranking

Projected vote and win probability in the runoff.

Marcye Scott

Democrat

Projected vote
54.0%
Win
85.9%
Median
54.0%

Everton Blair

Democrat

Projected vote
46.0%
Win
14.1%
Median
46.0%

13th Congressional District

District context

Special runoff to complete the term of Rep. David Scott, who died on April 22, 2026.

R 28.2%D 71.8%

Both finalists are Democrats; district partisanship confirms party control but does not decide the same-party runoff.

fundamentals_special_runoff_v1

Model note

Result: Everton Blair won the August 25 runoff with 9,895 votes (53.95%) to Marcye Scott's 8,447 (46.05%), on the Georgia Secretary of State's official count. This projection had Scott as an 85.9% favorite by a mean margin of 7.9 points; she lost by 7.9 points, below the model's 5th percentile. The forecast below is kept unchanged as the record of a miss. It was a fundamentals-only head-to-head projection anchored to the July 28 first-round result, with stochastic runoff retention, transfer and turnout assumptions across 50,000 simulations.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

Certified first-round structure

Scott led Blair 46.0% to 37.4% on July 28; that observed vote is the model's main anchor.

Runoff retention

Each finalist retains most, but not all, of the first-round coalition under correlated low-turnout uncertainty.

Eliminated-voter uncertainty

Carlos Moore and Republican voters may transfer to either finalist or abstain; no deterministic transfer is imposed.

No public district poll

No public GA-13 runoff polling average is used.