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Vacant U.S. House seat · No special election called

TX‑23: a vacant seat

Texas never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January. The forecast covers which party will hold it.

Updated October 22, 2026 50,000 simulations Provisional party-control model

Projected winner

89.7%Republican nominee win probability

Projected margin

19.0 pointsRepublican nominee

Election date

TBDwrit pending

Field

Names pendingparty-level forecast

Updated October 22, 2026 · 50,000 simulations

Party-control projection

Candidate ranking

Provisional forecast before the date and candidates are confirmed.

Republican nominee

Republican

Projected vote
59.5%
Win
89.7%
Median
59.5%

Democratic nominee

Democrat

Projected vote
40.5%
Win
10.3%
Median
40.5%

23rd Congressional District

District context

The seat became vacant after Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned. No special election was called: the seat stays vacant until the winner of the regular general of November 3, 2026 is sworn in.

R 62.3%D 37.7%

The party-level projection below is the last provisional one, frozen when the desk closed. The seat is decided on November 3 under the 2026 map, in the House projection.

provisional_party_control_v1

Model note

Closed desk. The figures are the last provisional party-control projection, made while a special election was still expected: it anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. No special election was called — see pending.no_writ_fallback for the contest that fills the seat.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

119th Congress district

The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan.

Candidate field pending

Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification.

Special-election uncertainty

The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown.

No special election

No writ was ever issued. Six months after the vacancy and days before the regular general, the seat is left vacant until November 3; this desk is closed and its projection kept unchanged as a record.