Pending U.S. House special · Date TBD

TX‑23 is vacant. The projection is live.

Texas has not yet called the special election. The initial desk projects eventual party control on the 119th Congress boundaries, with extra uncertainty for turnout and an unknown field.

Updated 2026-09-16 50,000 simulations Provisional party-control model

Projected winner

89.7%Republican nominee win probability

Projected margin

19.0 ptsRepublican nominee

Election date

TBDwrit pending

Field

Names pendingparty-level forecast

Updated 2026-09-16 · 50,000 simulations

Party-control projection

Candidate ranking

Provisional forecast before the date and candidates are confirmed.

Republican nominee

Republican

Projected vote
59.5%
Win
89.7%
Median
59.5%

Democratic nominee

Democrat

Projected vote
40.5%
Win
10.3%
Median
40.5%

23rd Congressional District

District context

The seat became vacant after Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned. The special-election date has not yet been set.

R 62.3%D 37.7%

The projection is party-level and remains provisional until the election calendar and candidate field are official.

provisional_party_control_v1

Model note

A provisional party-control projection for a vacant seat before the writ, date and candidate field are known. It anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. It assumes a special election is eventually called — see pending.no_writ_fallback for what governs the seat if none is.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

119th Congress district

The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan.

Candidate field pending

Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification.

Special-election uncertainty

The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown.

A writ may never come

This projection assumes a special election is eventually called. No writ had been issued for either seat five months after the vacancy, and leaving a seat vacant until the regular general is a live outcome — not an oversight to be projected away.