Resolved special election · August 18, 2026 · California 14

Wahab won CA‑14.

Aisha Wahab beat Melissa Hernandez 51,692 votes to 45,670 — 53.1% to 46.9% — in the August 18 all-Democratic special general, and was sworn in on September 2. The forecast on this page is the June 16 primary round only: it put Wahab first, which held, but understated her share and expected a different runner-up. Vote-Scope never published a projection for the August final. Counts are the Secretary of State's unofficial totals, due to be certified by September 25.

Updated 2026-09-08 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only

Primary favorite

70.3%Aisha Wahab first-place probability

Runoff probability

99.9%2026-08-18

Outright win chance

0.1%50% + 1

Likely runoff pair

Wendy Huang vs Aisha Wahab32.9% top-two path

Updated 2026-09-08 · 50,000 simulations

Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

Projected primary vote, top-two probability and first-place odds across the simulated all-party field.

Aisha Wahab

Democrat

Projected vote
23.5%
Top two
87%
First
70.3%

Wendy Huang

Republican

Projected vote
13.7%
Top two
41%
First
13.1%

Melissa Hernandez

Democrat

Projected vote
11.7%
Top two
26%
First
6.9%

Rakhi Israni Singh

Democrat

Projected vote
10.6%
Top two
19%
First
4.9%

Alisha Cordes

Democrat

Projected vote
8.6%
Top two
10%
First
2.1%

Tom Wong

Republican

Projected vote
7.5%
Top two
6%
First
1.2%

Sheriene Ridenour

Democrat

Projected vote
6.8%
Top two
4%
First
0.8%

Jot Thiara

Democrat

Projected vote
5.8%
Top two
3%
First
0.4%

Dena Maldonado

Republican

Projected vote
5.0%
Top two
1%
First
0.2%

Jack Wu

Republican

Projected vote
3.9%
Top two
1%
First
0.1%

Victor Zevallos

No party preference

Projected vote
3.0%
Top two
0%
First
0.1%

TOP-TWO PAIRS

Most likely top-two outcomes

Wendy Huang vs Aisha Wahab32.9%
Melissa Hernandez vs Aisha Wahab20.6%
Rakhi Israni Singh vs Aisha Wahab14.8%
Alisha Cordes vs Aisha Wahab7.6%
Aisha Wahab vs Tom Wong4.7%
Sheriene Ridenour vs Aisha Wahab3.2%

CONDITIONAL RUNOFF VIEW

Conditional runoff view

Democratic nominee would be favored in the expected runoff pairing at about 100.0%, while that August race still depends on who survives the crowded June 2 field.

14th Congressional District

District context

Special election to fill the CA-14 House vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned.

R 32.3%D 67.8%

The district starts as a strongly Democratic seat; the live uncertainty is mostly candidate order in the top-two primary.

fundamentals_special_primary_v1

Model note

Result: Aisha Wahab won the August 18 special general with 51,692 votes (53.1%) to Melissa Hernandez's 45,670 (46.9%), and was sworn in on September 2. She had led the certified June 16 primary with 42.8% to Hernandez's 16.8%. The forecast below is the June primary projection, kept unchanged: it put Wahab first with 70.3% probability, which held, but understated her share (23.5% mean against 42.8% actual) and expected Wendy Huang rather than Hernandez as the likelier runner-up. No forecast was ever published for the August general. No public district polling average was used: this was a fundamentals-only special-primary projection built from district baseline, candidate-field structure and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

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MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

Strong Democratic district baseline

CA-14 voted about 68D-32R in the 2024 House result and is Solid Democratic in the current House model.

Top-two primary first

The June 16 round can elect a majority winner outright, but the default expectation is a top-two runoff on August 18.

Certified candidate slate

The model uses the April 29 certified list: six Democrats, four Republicans and one no-party-preference candidate.

No public district polling average

This is a fundamentals-only desk until public CA-14 special-election polling appears.

Prediction market

Live odds via Polymarket