U.S. House special · June 16

CA-14 special primary forecast.

California's 14th Congressional District has a certified special-election field. This desk models the June 16 top-two special primary first, then the August 18 special general if no candidate clears 50% outright.

Updated 2026-06-02 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only

Primary favorite

70.3%Aisha Wahab first-place probability

Runoff probability

99.9%2026-08-18

Outright win chance

0.1%50% + 1

Likely runoff pair

Wendy Huang vs Aisha Wahab32.9% top-two path

Updated 2026-06-02 · 50,000 simulations

Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

Projected primary vote, top-two probability and first-place odds across the simulated all-party field.

Aisha Wahab

Democrat

Projected vote
23.5%
Top two
87%
First
70.3%

Wendy Huang

Republican

Projected vote
13.7%
Top two
41%
First
13.1%

Melissa Hernandez

Democrat

Projected vote
11.7%
Top two
26%
First
6.9%

Rakhi Israni Singh

Democrat

Projected vote
10.6%
Top two
19%
First
4.9%

Alisha Cordes

Democrat

Projected vote
8.6%
Top two
10%
First
2.1%

Tom Wong

Republican

Projected vote
7.5%
Top two
6%
First
1.2%

Sheriene Ridenour

Democrat

Projected vote
6.8%
Top two
4%
First
0.8%

Jot Thiara

Democrat

Projected vote
5.8%
Top two
3%
First
0.4%

Dena Maldonado

Republican

Projected vote
5.0%
Top two
1%
First
0.2%

Jack Wu

Republican

Projected vote
3.9%
Top two
1%
First
0.1%

Victor Zevallos

No party preference

Projected vote
3.0%
Top two
0%
First
0.1%

TOP-TWO PAIRS

Most likely top-two outcomes

Wendy Huang vs Aisha Wahab32.9%
Melissa Hernandez vs Aisha Wahab20.6%
Rakhi Israni Singh vs Aisha Wahab14.8%
Alisha Cordes vs Aisha Wahab7.6%
Aisha Wahab vs Tom Wong4.7%
Sheriene Ridenour vs Aisha Wahab3.2%

CONDITIONAL RUNOFF VIEW

Conditional runoff view

Democratic nominee would be favored in the expected runoff pairing at about 100.0%, while that August race still depends on who survives the crowded June 2 field.

14th Congressional District

District context

Special election to fill the CA-14 House vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned.

R 32.3%D 67.8%

The district starts as a strongly Democratic seat; the live uncertainty is mostly candidate order in the top-two primary.

fundamentals_special_primary_v1

Model note

No public district polling average is used here. This is a provisional fundamentals-only special-primary projection built from district baseline, candidate-field structure and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

Strong Democratic district baseline

CA-14 voted about 68D-32R in the 2024 House result and is Solid Democratic in the current House model.

Top-two primary first

The June 16 round can elect a majority winner outright, but the default expectation is a top-two runoff on August 18.

Certified candidate slate

The model uses the April 29 certified list: six Democrats, four Republicans and one no-party-preference candidate.

No public district polling average

This is a fundamentals-only desk until public CA-14 special-election polling appears.

Prediction market

Live odds via Polymarket