Resolved special election · April 16

NJ-11 result archive.

This page is now a resolved archive. Vote-Scope projected Analilia Mejia as the clear favorite before election day, and the district finished in a decisive Democratic hold.

Updated 2026-04-21 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only

Primary favorite

100.0%Analilia Mejia first-place probability

Runoff probability

0.0%2026-08-04

Outright win chance

100.0%50% + 1

Likely runoff pair

0.0% top-two path

Updated 2026-04-21 · 50,000 simulations

Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

Projected primary vote, top-two probability and first-place odds across the simulated all-party field.

Analilia Mejia

Democrat

Projected vote
58.4%
Top two
100%
First
100.0%

Joe Hathaway

Republican

Projected vote
41.6%
Top two
0%
First
0.0%

TOP-TWO PAIRS

Most likely top-two outcomes

CONDITIONAL RUNOFF VIEW

Conditional runoff view

Analilia Mejia would be favored in the expected runoff pairing at about 100.0%, while that August race still depends on who survives the crowded June 2 field.

11th Congressional District

District context

Special election to fill the NJ-11 House vacancy after Gov. Mikie Sherrill left Congress.

fundamentals_special_v1

Model note

No public district polling average is used here. This is a fundamentals-only special-election projection built from district partisanship, recent House results, special-election turnout assumptions and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

District Democratic baseline

NJ-11 is still a Democratic-leaning district in recent federal results, even after allowing for a lower-turnout special.

Current House anchor

The special starts from the current district-level House projection rather than a neutral 50-50 environment.

Special-election turnout risk

The model still leaves room for a modest Republican turnout edge, but no longer treats that edge as large enough to erase the district's Democratic lean.

Candidate fit uncertainty

Specials can still punish weak partisan fit or local mismatches, but candidate-specific noise is narrower than before because the previous setup overstated upset risk.

No public district polling average

This page is fundamentals-only unless a public district poll is added later.

Prediction market

Live odds via Polymarket