Result locked · April 8, 2026 · Georgia 14

Fuller won. We called it.

Vote-Scope built this special-election page for a no-polls runoff environment, leaning on first-round structure, district partisanship and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The call held: Clay Fuller won, validating the model's first public special-election projection.

Updated 2026-04-21 50,000 simulations Fundamentals-only

Primary favorite

95.8%Clay Fuller first-place probability

Runoff probability

0.0%2026-08-04

Outright win chance

95.8%50% + 1

Likely runoff pair

0.0% top-two path

Updated 2026-04-21 · 50,000 simulations

Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

Projected primary vote, top-two probability and first-place odds across the simulated all-party field.

Clay Fuller

Republican

Projected vote
58.2%
Top two
96%
First
95.8%

Shawn Harris

Democrat

Projected vote
41.8%
Top two
4%
First
4.2%

TOP-TWO PAIRS

Most likely top-two outcomes

CONDITIONAL RUNOFF VIEW

Conditional runoff view

Clay Fuller would be favored in the expected runoff pairing at about 95.8%, while that August race still depends on who survives the crowded June 2 field.

14th Congressional District

District context

fundamentals_runoff_v1

Model note

No public runoff polling was used. This page is a fundamentals-only special-election projection built from first-round results, district partisanship, runoff transfer assumptions and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

Other Republican vote to Fuller

Modeled as a noisy consolidation rate, not as a certainty.

Other non-Republican vote to Harris

Captures modest but incomplete consolidation on the Democratic side.

Runoff turnout tilt

Allows for a small Republican turnout edge in a low-turnout runoff.

District prior

Anchored to the district's recent presidential lean rather than national polling.