2027 French presidential · Candidacy effect
Where each candidacy takes its votes from
French pollsters often test, in the same survey and on the same people, two candidate lists that differ by a single name. The difference between the two shows where the votes go. We did the subtraction.
If a candidate is not on the list
Without Philippe
Philippe averages 14.2%. When left off the list, those voters go (gain in points, then share of the votes):
30 comparisons in 22 polls · Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay, YouGov
Without Attal
Attal averages 7.6%. When left off the list, those voters go (gain in points, then share of the votes):
29 comparisons in 21 polls · Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay, YouGov
If one candidate replaces another
Attal instead of Philippe
Attal scores 13.7% where Philippe scores 18.1%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Retailleau +1.8
- Glucksmann +1.1
- RN +0.8
63 comparisons in 39 polls · Cluster17, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, Odoxa, OpinionWay, YouGov
Hollande instead of Glucksmann
Hollande scores 8.4% where Glucksmann scores 11.7%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +0.8
- Tondelier +0.7
- RN +0.5
- Mélenchon +0.3
- Roussel +0.3
27 comparisons in 15 polls · Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, OpinionWay, YouGov
Faure instead of Glucksmann
Faure scores 4.5% where Glucksmann scores 11.9%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +1.7
- Tondelier +1.3
- RN +1.1
- Mélenchon +1.0
- Attal +0.9
- Roussel +0.8
10 comparisons in 5 polls · Elabe, Ifop, Ipsos BVA, YouGov
Villepin instead of Attal
Villepin scores 2.3% where Attal scores 6.9%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +3.0
- Glucksmann +0.5
4 comparisons in 4 polls · Elabe, Ifop
Villepin instead of Philippe
Villepin scores 2.9% where Philippe scores 14.0%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Attal +6.1
- Retailleau +2.3
- Glucksmann +1.9
- Tondelier −0.4
4 comparisons in 4 polls · Elabe, Ifop
Faure instead of Hollande
Faure scores 3.9% where Hollande scores 8.0%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +1.4
- Roussel +1.1
- Dupont-Aignan +1.0
- RN +0.8
4 comparisons in 4 polls · Elabe, Ifop
Lisnard instead of Attal
Lisnard scores 9.7% where Attal scores 8.5%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Philippe +1.0
- Glucksmann +0.7
- Arthaud −0.3
- Dupont-Aignan −0.5
- RN −0.8
- Zemmour −0.8
- Retailleau −1.0
3 comparisons in 3 polls · Cluster17, Elabe, Ipsos BVA
Le Maire instead of Attal
Le Maire scores 5.0% where Attal scores 12.3%. Around them, scores move like this:
- Glucksmann +2.3
- Retailleau +2.0
- RN +1.0
- Arthaud +0.3
- Dupont-Aignan +0.3
- Philippe +0.3
3 comparisons in 2 polls · Ifop, YouGov
How it is calculated
- We only keep pairs of lineups from the same survey: same fieldwork, same sample, same weighting. Only the list of candidates changes.
- An effect is published only from 3 comparisons by at least 2 pollsters. Published shares are often rounded to the point: one comparison is noisy, the average much less so.
- Le Pen and Bardella are grouped as “RN”: over the year, both carried the party’s candidacy.
- These are voting intentions months before the vote: transfers measured today can change during the campaign.