Jean-Luc Melenchon
Founder of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon ran for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022, narrowly missing the runoff in the latter. He declared his 2027 candidacy in May 2026.
Jean-Luc Melenchon (Radical left (LFI)) is an officially declared candidate in the 2027 French presidential election. Our aggregations test them across 11 candidate configurations, with a first-round voting intention between 8 and 20% depending on the lineup.
In the runoff, in the "Bardella / Glucksmann / Melenchon / Retailleau" lineup, our forecast has them losing against Jordan Bardella (41.1% to 58.9%). This is our best central estimate for that lineup, within a range of plausible outcomes.
First-round voting intention
Range observed across 11 tested lineups. The marker shows the best lineup.
- Floor
- 8.0%
- Ceiling
- 20.0%
- Best lineup
- 15.7%
- Probability of advancing
- 60%
Runoff matchups
Projected outcome against each opponent, in the most favourable featured lineup.
- behind vs Jordan Bardella 41.1% — 58.9%
- behind vs Marine Le Pen 37.1% — 62.9%