Edouard Philippe
A former prime minister (2017-2020) and founder of the Horizons party, Édouard Philippe is mayor of Le Havre. He was among the first major declared candidates for 2027 (September 2024), occupying the political centre.
Edouard Philippe (Centre-right (Horizons)) is an officially declared candidate in the 2027 French presidential election. Our aggregations test them across 85 candidate configurations, with a first-round voting intention between 12 and 30% depending on the lineup.
In the runoff, in the "Philippe / Melenchon / Roussel / Zemmour" lineup, our forecast has them winning against Jean-Luc Melenchon (61.2% to 38.8%). This is our best central estimate for that lineup, within a range of plausible outcomes.
First-round voting intention
Range observed across 85 tested lineups. The marker shows the best lineup.
- Floor
- 12.0%
- Ceiling
- 30.0%
- Best lineup
- 28.3%
- Probability of advancing
- 99%
Runoff matchups
Projected outcome against each opponent, in the most favourable featured lineup.
- ahead vs Jean-Luc Melenchon 61.2% — 38.8%
- behind vs Jordan Bardella 49.6% — 50.4%
- behind vs Marine Le Pen 49.1% — 50.9%