VoteScope
U.S. House special · June 16

CA-14 special primary forecast.

A provisional English-only landing page for California's 14th Congressional District. This desk models the June 16 top-two special primary first, then the August 18 special general if no candidate clears 50% outright.

Updated
50,000 simulations
Fundamentals-only
Candidate slate provisional
Primary favorite
--First-place probability
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Projected primary field

Candidate ranking

CA-14 is structurally Democratic. The live question is less partisan control than candidate order: who leads the June 16 field, who reaches the top two, and whether the race ends immediately or goes to August.

Runoff outlook

What matters most

Runoff probability--
Outright win chance--
Likely runoff pair--
Top-two pairs

Most likely June 16 outcomes

Conditional runoff view

If the expected pairing materializes

Model inputs

Main assumptions

Sources

Public reference points