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What if the polls moved in Canada?

Move the national or regional vote and see all 343 ridings respond.

Personal scenario · anchored to the projection 2026-09-16 · Canada · 343 ridings

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

172 seats = majority

  • Liberal230+0.1
  • Conservative84—
  • Bloc Quebecois21—
  • NDP6—
  • Green2—
  • 48.0 %
  • 32.1 %
  • 5.7 %
  • 10.6 %
  • 2.7 %

Total100.0 %Other parties 1.0 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from 2026-09-16. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

LiberalConservativeBloc QuebecoisNDPGreen

N.L.7

P.E.I.4

N.S.11

N.B.10

Abitibi2

Montreal18

Suburbs14

Outaouais4

QuebecC.11

Montérég.12

Estrie8

Mauricie3

Saguenay4

E. Quebec2

York–Durham13

E. Ont.20

Toronto26

Peel–Halton30

SW Ont.22

Ottawa11

Man.rurale6

Winnipeg8

RuralSask.6

UrbanSask.8

Calgary13

RuralAlta.13

Edmonton11

Vancouver25

NorthB.C.3

B.C.Int.8

Vanc.Island7

Territories3

Select a riding to see its detail.

Who holds what, in your scenario

Liberal

230—
  1. Richmond Hill South0.1
  2. Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola0.2
  3. Elgin--St. Thomas--London South0.4
  4. Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt0.7
  5. Wellington--Halton Hills North1.0
  6. Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte1.0
  7. Cowichan--Malahat--Langford1.2
  8. Shefford1.3
  9. Saint John--St. Croix1.6
  10. Long Range Mountains2.8
  11. Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes2.8
  12. Oshawa3.1
  13. Terrebonne3.6
  14. Lanark--Frontenac3.7
  15. Longueuil--Saint-Hubert3.8
  16. Bowmanville--Oshawa North4.0
  17. Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake4.0
  18. St. Albert--Sturgeon River4.1
  19. Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee4.3
  20. Abbotsford--South Langley4.4
  21. Niagara South4.4
  22. Langley Township--Fraser Heights4.5
  23. Markham--Unionville4.5
  24. Newmarket--Aurora4.6
  25. Simcoe North5.0
  26. Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna5.1
  27. Calgary East5.3
  28. Northumberland--Clarke5.6
  29. Beauport--Limoilou6.0
  30. Brampton West6.2
  31. Cambridge6.2
  32. Hamilton East--Stoney Creek6.3
  33. Kitchener South--Hespeler6.7
  34. Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay6.8
  35. Vancouver Kingsway6.9
  36. Les Pays-d'en-Haut7.0
  37. Calgary Heritage7.0
  38. Nanaimo--Ladysmith7.2
  39. Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore8.1
  40. Milton East--Halton Hills South8.5
  41. Nunavut8.8
  42. Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou9.1
  43. Kitchener--Conestoga9.3
  44. Mount Royal9.4
  45. Acadie--Annapolis9.5
  46. Miramichi--Grand Lake9.6
  47. Richmond Centre--Marpole9.9
  48. Calgary Signal Hill10.0
  49. Brampton Centre10.1
  50. Brampton North--Caledon10.1
  51. Brampton South10.4
  52. Eglinton--Lawrence10.4
  53. Calgary Nose Hill10.6
  54. Terra Nova--The Peninsulas10.9
  55. La Prairie--Atateken11.0
  56. Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma11.1
  57. Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge11.8
  58. Cloverdale--Langley City11.9
  59. Nipissing--Timiskaming12.1
  60. Calgary Crowfoot12.2
  61. Brampton East12.5
  62. Brampton--Chinguacousy Park13.4
  63. Cumberland--Colchester13.4
  64. Hamilton Mountain13.4
  65. Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie13.7
  66. Trois-Rivières13.8
  67. Bay of Quinte14.0
  68. Winnipeg Centre14.1
  69. Kelowna14.1
  70. Thunder Bay--Rainy River14.3
  71. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles14.3
  72. Carleton14.6
  73. Mississauga East--Cooksville14.6
  74. Markham--Stouffville15.0
  75. Thérèse-De Blainville15.1
  76. Saskatoon South15.1
  77. Oakville East15.2
  78. New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville15.2
  79. Mississauga--Streetsville15.4
  80. Laval--Les Îles15.7
  81. Chicoutimi--Le Fjord15.9
  82. Québec Centre16.1
  83. Saskatoon--University16.4
  84. Calgary Skyview16.6
  85. Regina--Lewvan16.6
  86. Hamilton Centre16.7
  87. Edmonton Manning16.9
  88. Regina--Wascana17.1
  89. Mississauga--Lakeshore17.2
  90. Richmond East--Steveston17.2
  91. Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville17.4
  92. Burlington North--Milton West17.4
  93. Oakville West17.5
  94. Fleetwood--Port Kells17.7
  95. Whitby17.9
  96. Willowdale18.8
  97. Etobicoke Centre19.0
  98. Edmonton Northwest19.0
  99. Egmont19.7
  100. South Surrey--White Rock19.7
  101. Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish19.8
  102. Mississauga--Malton20.2
  103. Edmonton Southeast20.2
  104. Don Valley North20.4
  105. Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam20.4
  106. Surrey Centre20.5
  107. Compton--Stanstead20.6
  108. Central Nova20.6
  109. Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est20.7
  110. Port Moody--Coquitlam20.9
  111. Scarborough--Agincourt21.0
  112. Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation21.0
  113. Surrey Newton21.2
  114. Brome--Missisquoi21.3
  115. Mississauga Centre21.3
  116. St. Catharines21.5
  117. Edmonton Gateway21.6
  118. Etobicoke North21.7
  119. Burnaby Central21.7
  120. Edmonton West21.9
  121. Labrador21.9
  122. Peterborough22.0
  123. Sudbury22.2
  124. Pickering--Brooklin22.3
  125. Kildonan--St. Paul22.7
  126. Markham--Thornhill23.3
  127. Delta24.0
  128. Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne24.2
  129. Prescott--Russell--Cumberland24.5
  130. Burlington24.6
  131. Saint-Maurice--Champlain24.6
  132. Pontiac--Kitigan Zibi24.9
  133. Mississauga--Erin Mills25.1
  134. South Shore--St. Margarets25.4
  135. Sherbrooke26.1
  136. Vimy26.4
  137. Yukon26.9
  138. Ajax27.0
  139. Pierrefonds--Dollard27.1
  140. York South--Weston--Etobicoke27.2
  141. Madawaska--Restigouche27.3
  142. Saint-Laurent28.3
  143. Edmonton Riverbend28.4
  144. Etobicoke--Lakeshore28.6
  145. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin28.8
  146. Sydney--Glace Bay29.0
  147. London West29.0
  148. Calgary Centre29.1
  149. Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East29.3
  150. Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas29.7
  151. Thunder Bay--Superior North29.7
  152. Churchill--Keewatinook Aski29.8
  153. Calgary McKnight30.8
  154. Alfred-Pellan30.8
  155. Humber River--Black Creek31.0
  156. LaSalle--Émard--Verdun31.2
  157. Vaudreuil31.9
  158. Cardigan32.0
  159. Malpeque32.7
  160. Louis-Hébert33.0
  161. Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby33.3
  162. Northwest Territories33.4
  163. Guelph34.2
  164. Saint John--Kennebecasis34.4
  165. Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke34.9
  166. Avalon35.0
  167. Kanata35.4
  168. Honoré-Mercier35.7
  169. Calgary Confederation35.7
  170. Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle36.0
  171. Beaches--East York36.1
  172. London Centre36.5
  173. Laurier--Sainte-Marie36.5
  174. Scarborough--Woburn37.1
  175. Waterloo37.7
  176. Papineau38.3
  177. Gatineau38.5
  178. Winnipeg West39.0
  179. Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park39.6
  180. Toronto--St. Paul's39.6
  181. Kings--Hants39.9
  182. Beauséjour40.0
  183. Brossard--Saint-Lambert40.0
  184. Bourassa40.0
  185. Don Valley West40.0
  186. Outremont40.4
  187. Nepean40.7
  188. Scarborough North40.8
  189. North Vancouver--Capilano40.8
  190. Lac-Saint-Louis41.0
  191. Spadina--Harbourfront41.5
  192. Burnaby North--Seymour41.9
  193. Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel42.0
  194. Vancouver Centre42.0
  195. Sackville--Bedford--Preston42.1
  196. Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs42.3
  197. Hull--Aylmer42.5
  198. Fredericton--Oromocto42.6
  199. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount42.6
  200. Victoria42.9
  201. Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park43.0
  202. Kingston and the Islands43.1
  203. Edmonton Centre43.1
  204. Ahuntsic-Cartierville43.5
  205. West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country44.9
  206. Moncton--Dieppe45.8
  207. Davenport46.2
  208. Ottawa Centre49.0
  209. Vancouver Quadra49.2
  210. Ottawa West--Nepean49.3
  211. Winnipeg South49.8
  212. Charlottetown50.1
  213. Winnipeg North50.1
  214. Ottawa South50.7
  215. Orléans50.8
  216. Vancouver Granville51.1
  217. St. John's East51.8
  218. St. Boniface--St. Vital52.7
  219. Halifax West53.4
  220. University--Rosedale53.8
  221. Halifax55.4
  222. Acadie--Bathurst55.6
  223. Toronto Centre57.0
  224. Cape Spear57.6
  225. Scarborough Southwest59.4
  226. Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester60.4
  227. Dartmouth--Cole Harbour60.8
  228. Toronto--Danforth61.3
  229. Winnipeg South Centre63.3
  230. Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River68.7

Conservative

84—
  1. North Island--Powell River0.2
  2. Lethbridge0.2
  3. Central Newfoundland0.3
  4. Simcoe--Grey0.4
  5. Niagara West0.7
  6. Windsor West0.7
  7. Skeena--Bulkley Valley1.1
  8. Parry Sound--Muskoka1.3
  9. Richmond--Arthabaska1.6
  10. Calgary Midnapore1.7
  11. Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies1.8
  12. Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk1.9
  13. Montmorency--Charlevoix2.1
  14. Saskatoon West2.2
  15. Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North2.2
  16. Middlesex--London2.4
  17. London--Fanshawe3.0
  18. Fundy Royal3.3
  19. Huron--Bruce3.6
  20. York Centre3.8
  21. Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill4.2
  22. Perth--Wellington4.4
  23. Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations4.4
  24. Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound5.0
  25. Calgary Shepard5.7
  26. Kenora--Kiiwetinoong6.1
  27. Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga6.2
  28. Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles6.6
  29. Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan7.1
  30. Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford7.8
  31. York--Durham8.4
  32. Oxford8.6
  33. Chilliwack--Hope8.6
  34. Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong8.7
  35. Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry8.9
  36. Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk10.4
  37. Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes10.5
  38. Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke10.7
  39. Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman12.1
  40. Barrie South--Innisfil12.5
  41. Yellowhead12.5
  42. Tobique--Mactaquac13.6
  43. Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies13.7
  44. Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata13.8
  45. Haldimand--Norfolk14.2
  46. Regina--Qu'Appelle14.5
  47. Essex14.6
  48. Vaughan--Woodbridge14.7
  49. New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury15.1
  50. Chatham-Kent--Leamington15.4
  51. Airdrie--Cochrane16.3
  52. Lévis--Lotbinière16.5
  53. Dufferin--Caledon17.9
  54. King--Vaughan18.4
  55. Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier18.4
  56. Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis18.5
  57. Brandon--Souris19.5
  58. Provencher20.6
  59. Cariboo--Prince George21.8
  60. Red Deer25.3
  61. Portage--Lisgar27.1
  62. Thornhill27.8
  63. Riding Mountain30.7
  64. Foothills34.1
  65. Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière34.1
  66. Parkland34.6
  67. Leduc--Wetaskiwin35.2
  68. Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner36.4
  69. Beauce37.2
  70. Prince Albert39.0
  71. Bow River39.6
  72. Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan42.0
  73. Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake43.2
  74. Fort McMurray--Cold Lake43.5
  75. Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies45.6
  76. Peace River--Westlock46.6
  77. Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek47.0
  78. Lakeland48.0
  79. Grande Prairie49.3
  80. Battle River--Crowfoot49.9
  81. Yorkton--Melville50.3
  82. Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley59.6
  83. Souris--Moose Mountain63.2
  84. Ponoka--Didsbury71.1

Bloc Quebecois

21—
  1. Repentigny0.8
  2. La Pointe-de-l'Île2.5
  3. Mirabel3.6
  4. Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj4.5
  5. Berthier--Maskinongé4.6
  6. Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères4.7
  7. Laurentides--Labelle6.8
  8. Saint-Jean7.2
  9. Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton7.4
  10. Jonquière7.8
  11. Rimouski--La Matapédia8.0
  12. Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntingdon8.5
  13. Rivière-du-Nord9.2
  14. Beloeil--Chambly10.6
  15. Drummond11.2
  16. Côte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan12.7
  17. Joliette--Manawan14.5
  18. Montcalm16.0
  19. Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnôbak16.1
  20. Lac-Saint-Jean16.4
  21. Abitibi--Témiscamingue18.7

NDP

6—
  1. Elmwood--Transcona0.6
  2. Edmonton Griesbach0.7
  3. Vancouver East0.7
  4. Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie8.4
  5. Courtenay--Alberni10.8
  6. Edmonton Strathcona13.5

Green

2—
  1. Saanich--Gulf Islands3.1
  2. Kitchener Centre5.3

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published run; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.