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What if the polls moved in Ontario?

Move the parties and watch Ontario’s electoral map reassemble.

Personal scenario · anchored to the projection 2026-09-16 · Ontario · 124 ridings

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

63 seats = majority

  • Progressive Conservative65—
  • Ontario NDP28—
  • Ontario Liberal28—
  • Ontario Green2—
  • Other1—
  • 40.8 %
  • 19.2 %
  • 33.0 %
  • 2.9 %
  • 4.2 %

Total100.0 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from 2026-09-16. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

Progressive ConservativeOntario NDPOntario LiberalOntario GreenOther

Torontosuburbs34

Northern11

Eastern17

Toronto25

SouthwesternOntario29

Central8

Select a riding to see its detail.

Who holds what, in your scenario

Progressive Conservative

67—
  1. Hamilton Mountain0.0
  2. Scarborough—Rouge Park0.1
  3. Mississauga Centre0.4
  4. Newmarket—Aurora0.7
  5. Milton0.7
  6. Peterborough—Kawartha1.7
  7. Whitby3.1
  8. Pickering—Uxbridge3.3
  9. Oakville North—Burlington3.5
  10. Markham—Stouffville3.9
  11. Parry Sound—Muskoka4.8
  12. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek5.1
  13. Mississauga—Malton6.8
  14. Cambridge8.1
  15. Markham—Thornhill8.5
  16. Carleton8.7
  17. Algoma—Manitoulin8.7
  18. Scarborough North9.2
  19. York Centre9.5
  20. Bay of Quinte10.3
  21. Kitchener—Conestoga10.9
  22. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte11.8
  23. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell11.9
  24. Brampton Centre12.5
  25. Flamborough—Glanbrook12.6
  26. Wellington—Halton Hills12.7
  27. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound13.5
  28. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston13.8
  29. Hastings—Lennox and Addington13.8
  30. Thunder Bay—Atikokan14.4
  31. Brampton South14.6
  32. Richmond Hill15.7
  33. Windsor—Tecumseh15.9
  34. Durham16.0
  35. Brampton East16.4
  36. Northumberland—Peterborough South17.3
  37. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill17.8
  38. Perth—Wellington18.3
  39. Kitchener South—Hespeler18.5
  40. Brampton West18.6
  41. Simcoe—Grey19.9
  42. Huron—Bruce20.7
  43. Brampton North21.7
  44. Dufferin—Caledon21.9
  45. Etobicoke North22.0
  46. Brantford—Brant22.6
  47. Simcoe North22.6
  48. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock23.9
  49. Nipissing24.1
  50. Markham—Unionville24.7
  51. Niagara West25.0
  52. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes25.4
  53. Barrie—Innisfil25.5
  54. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex26.0
  55. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke29.1
  56. Elgin—Middlesex—London29.9
  57. Sarnia—Lambton30.4
  58. Thornhill30.5
  59. King—Vaughan30.6
  60. Oxford30.7
  61. Chatham-Kent—Leamington32.3
  62. Essex32.6
  63. Vaughan—Woodbridge32.8
  64. York—Simcoe34.1
  65. Kenora—Rainy River35.5
  66. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry36.7
  67. Timmins42.7

Ontario NDP

28—
  1. Humber River—Black Creek3.5
  2. Toronto Centre3.9
  3. Sault Ste. Marie4.9
  4. Mushkegowuk—James Bay5.4
  5. Niagara Centre5.7
  6. Oshawa6.1
  7. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas7.6
  8. St. Catharines7.8
  9. Spadina—Fort York8.9
  10. Parkdale—High Park10.0
  11. University—Rosedale10.2
  12. Timiskaming—Cochrane11.4
  13. Thunder Bay—Superior North11.7
  14. Sudbury13.4
  15. Hamilton Centre13.5
  16. Windsor West13.5
  17. London—Fanshawe14.2
  18. London North Centre14.9
  19. London West15.0
  20. Scarborough Southwest15.3
  21. Nickel Belt15.5
  22. Ottawa West—Nepean20.7
  23. Niagara Falls21.1
  24. Waterloo23.6
  25. Ottawa Centre30.2
  26. Davenport31.9
  27. Toronto—Danforth34.6
  28. Kiiwetinoong39.6

Ontario Liberal

26—
  1. Mississauga—Streetsville0.8
  2. Oakville1.4
  3. Scarborough—Agincourt1.4
  4. Mississauga—Lakeshore1.5
  5. Mississauga East—Cooksville1.9
  6. Etobicoke Centre2.6
  7. Mississauga—Erin Mills5.2
  8. Burlington5.2
  9. Ajax6.0
  10. Willowdale7.0
  11. Scarborough Centre7.1
  12. York South—Weston8.2
  13. Eglinton—Lawrence8.4
  14. Kanata—Carleton9.4
  15. Nepean12.3
  16. Toronto—St. Paul's13.6
  17. Don Valley North15.1
  18. Etobicoke—Lakeshore16.8
  19. Orléans20.9
  20. Scarborough—Guildwood22.1
  21. Ottawa South30.6
  22. Ottawa—Vanier30.8
  23. Don Valley West32.1
  24. Beaches—East York32.7
  25. Don Valley East33.3
  26. Kingston and the Islands41.2

Ontario Green

2—
  1. Kitchener Centre25.4
  2. Guelph31.2

Other

1—
  1. Haldimand—Norfolk39.9

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published run; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.