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What if the polls moved in Ontario?

Move the parties and watch Ontario’s electoral map reassemble.

Personal scenario · starting from the forecast of November 2, 2026 · Ontario · 124 ridings

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

63 seats = majority

  • Progressive Conservative68—
  • Ontario NDP28—
  • Ontario Liberal25—
  • Ontario Green2—
  • Other1—
  • 39.2 %
  • 21.5 %
  • 30.4 %
  • 4.4 %
  • 4.6 %

Total100.0 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from November 2, 2026. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

Progressive ConservativeOntario NDPOntario LiberalOntario GreenOther

Loading the map…

Who holds what, in your scenario

Progressive Conservative

68—
  1. Mississauga—Streetsville0.2
  2. Hamilton Mountain0.9
  3. Mississauga Centre1.4
  4. Scarborough—Rouge Park1.4
  5. Newmarket—Aurora1.5
  6. Milton1.6
  7. Parry Sound—Muskoka1.8
  8. Peterborough—Kawartha2.1
  9. Whitby4.0
  10. Pickering—Uxbridge4.1
  11. Oakville North—Burlington4.3
  12. Markham—Stouffville4.7
  13. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek6.0
  14. Algoma—Manitoulin6.1
  15. Mississauga—Malton7.6
  16. Cambridge8.6
  17. Carleton9.2
  18. Markham—Thornhill9.3
  19. Scarborough North10.6
  20. York Centre10.8
  21. Bay of Quinte10.9
  22. Kitchener—Conestoga11.3
  23. Thunder Bay—Atikokan11.7
  24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte12.3
  25. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell12.4
  26. Brampton Centre13.4
  27. Flamborough—Glanbrook13.4
  28. Wellington—Halton Hills13.5
  29. Windsor—Tecumseh13.9
  30. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound14.0
  31. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston14.4
  32. Hastings—Lennox and Addington14.7
  33. Brampton South15.4
  34. Richmond Hill16.6
  35. Durham16.9
  36. Brampton East17.3
  37. Northumberland—Peterborough South17.8
  38. Perth—Wellington18.7
  39. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill18.7
  40. Kitchener South—Hespeler18.8
  41. Brampton West19.4
  42. Simcoe—Grey20.3
  43. Brantford—Brant20.5
  44. Huron—Bruce21.2
  45. Nipissing21.4
  46. Brampton North22.5
  47. Simcoe North22.9
  48. Dufferin—Caledon23.0
  49. Etobicoke North23.4
  50. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock24.9
  51. Niagara West25.5
  52. Markham—Unionville25.5
  53. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes25.8
  54. Barrie—Innisfil26.0
  55. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex26.4
  56. Sarnia—Lambton28.3
  57. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke29.2
  58. Elgin—Middlesex—London30.4
  59. Essex30.5
  60. Oxford31.2
  61. King—Vaughan31.4
  62. Chatham-Kent—Leamington31.5
  63. Thornhill31.5
  64. Kenora—Rainy River32.8
  65. Vaughan—Woodbridge33.8
  66. York—Simcoe34.5
  67. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry37.5
  68. Timmins40.1

Ontario NDP

28—
  1. Humber River—Black Creek6.3
  2. Toronto Centre6.7
  3. Sault Ste. Marie7.6
  4. Niagara Centre7.7
  5. Oshawa8.0
  6. Mushkegowuk—James Bay8.1
  7. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas9.5
  8. St. Catharines9.8
  9. Spadina—Fort York11.7
  10. Parkdale—High Park12.8
  11. University—Rosedale13.0
  12. Timiskaming—Cochrane14.0
  13. Thunder Bay—Superior North14.4
  14. Windsor West15.4
  15. Sudbury16.0
  16. London—Fanshawe16.1
  17. Hamilton Centre16.3
  18. London North Centre16.8
  19. London West17.0
  20. Scarborough Southwest18.1
  21. Nickel Belt19.5
  22. Ottawa West—Nepean22.9
  23. Niagara Falls23.1
  24. Waterloo25.4
  25. Ottawa Centre32.8
  26. Davenport34.7
  27. Toronto—Danforth37.4
  28. Kiiwetinoong43.6

Ontario Liberal

25—
  1. Scarborough—Agincourt0.1
  2. Mississauga—Lakeshore0.5
  3. Oakville0.5
  4. Mississauga East—Cooksville1.0
  5. Etobicoke Centre1.3
  6. Burlington4.2
  7. Mississauga—Erin Mills4.3
  8. Ajax5.1
  9. Willowdale5.6
  10. Scarborough Centre5.8
  11. York South—Weston6.9
  12. Eglinton—Lawrence7.1
  13. Kanata—Carleton8.9
  14. Toronto—St. Paul's10.7
  15. Nepean11.8
  16. Don Valley North13.8
  17. Etobicoke—Lakeshore15.5
  18. Orléans20.5
  19. Scarborough—Guildwood20.8
  20. Beaches—East York29.7
  21. Ottawa South30.1
  22. Ottawa—Vanier30.4
  23. Don Valley West30.7
  24. Don Valley East31.9
  25. Kingston and the Islands40.6

Ontario Green

2—
  1. Kitchener Centre26.9
  2. Guelph32.7

Other

1—
  1. Haldimand—Norfolk41.0

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published forecast; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.