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What if the polls moved in the U.S.?

Move the national or regional vote and see all 435 districts respond.

Personal scenario · anchored to the projection 2026-09-16 · United States · 435 districts

Personal scenario

Move the numbers

Nudge a party and watch the seats follow. Everything runs on your device.

218 seats = majority

  • Democratic235—
  • Republican200—
  • 54.4 %
  • 44.7 %

Total100.0 %Other parties 0.9 %

Sliders at rest: you are seeing exactly the projection from 2026-09-16. Each slider's travel matches what the model considers plausible.

This is not the model. It is a shortcut anchored on today's projection: at rest it shows exactly our published numbers, and it drifts further the harder you push. For a real projection, see the main page.

Riding map in your scenario

DemocraticRepublican

Ala.7

Alaska1

Ariz.9

Ark.4

Calif.52

Colo.8

Conn.5

Del.1

Fla.28

Ga.14

Hawaii2

Idaho2

Ill.17

Ind.9

Iowa4

Kan.4

Ky.6

La.6

Maine2

Md.8

Mass.9

Mich.13

Minn.8

Miss.4

Mo.8

Mont.2

Neb.3

Nev.4

N.H.2

N.J.12

N.M.3

N.Y.26

N.C.14

N.D.1

Ohio15

Okla.5

Ore.6

Pa.17

R.I.2

S.C.7

S.D.1

Tenn.9

Texas38

Utah4

Vt.1

Va.11

Wash.10

W.Va.2

Wis.8

Wyo.1

Select a riding to see its detail.

Who holds what, in your scenario

Democratic

235—
  1. OH-90.2
  2. OH-100.4
  3. FL-220.6
  4. NC-110.8
  5. OH-70.8
  6. TX-341.4
  7. MT-11.8
  8. NC-12.2
  9. FL-142.6
  10. TX-282.6
  11. CO-33.3
  12. MI-73.6
  13. FL-254.0
  14. MI-104.4
  15. VA-24.5
  16. NJ-74.7
  17. NY-14.8
  18. NY-175.3
  19. AZ-15.4
  20. IA-35.4
  21. WI-36.0
  22. ME-26.2
  23. AZ-66.3
  24. PA-86.6
  25. OH-17.0
  26. PA-77.6
  27. PA-107.8
  28. NE-28.0
  29. IA-18.4
  30. CA-228.4
  31. CO-88.5
  32. CA-4810.4
  33. CA-1310.8
  34. WA-311.8
  35. NY-1914.2
  36. OH-1314.2
  37. CA-4515.0
  38. NV-315.2
  39. NM-215.2
  40. VA-715.2
  41. OR-515.5
  42. CT-516.9
  43. CA-2117.0
  44. CA-2517.0
  45. VA-1017.0
  46. NJ-917.5
  47. NY-417.7
  48. MD-618.4
  49. NH-218.4
  50. NH-118.5
  51. NY-318.7
  52. CA-3518.8
  53. OR-618.8
  54. MI-818.9
  55. AZ-419.6
  56. PA-1719.8
  57. NV-119.8
  58. MN-219.9
  59. CA-620.0
  60. OR-420.1
  61. WA-820.2
  62. CA-3920.4
  63. IL-620.4
  64. NV-420.4
  65. IN-120.7
  66. CA-2720.8
  67. IL-1720.8
  68. NJ-320.8
  69. CA-4721.0
  70. CA-3321.2
  71. CA-321.6
  72. IL-1422.0
  73. NY-1822.1
  74. MI-322.2
  75. NY-2222.2
  76. CA-922.8
  77. IL-1123.0
  78. KS-323.0
  79. CA-3823.2
  80. CA-123.4
  81. CA-3123.4
  82. CA-4923.4
  83. NJ-523.5
  84. CA-4224.0
  85. IL-824.0
  86. MA-124.0
  87. NM-324.0
  88. PA-624.0
  89. CA-724.2
  90. GA-224.2
  91. NM-124.2
  92. MA-924.4
  93. PA-1224.4
  94. FL-2324.6
  95. NJ-1125.1
  96. WA-625.2
  97. CA-4125.8
  98. CO-726.1
  99. CA-2626.2
  100. CA-426.6
  101. CA-4627.2
  102. DE-AL27.2
  103. CT-227.4
  104. TX-1627.4
  105. NY-2527.5
  106. IL-1327.6
  107. NJ-627.6
  108. RI-228.2
  109. MN-328.4
  110. AL-728.8
  111. CA-5128.8
  112. WA-1028.8
  113. CA-5229.4
  114. PA-429.6
  115. NJ-129.7
  116. CA-5030.0
  117. MD-230.5
  118. MI-1130.5
  119. CT-331.1
  120. IL-1031.2
  121. CO-632.4
  122. NY-2032.7
  123. MD-333.3
  124. ME-133.5
  125. TX-733.7
  126. FL-1034.6
  127. SC-634.6
  128. KY-335.0
  129. MO-535.0
  130. MS-235.2
  131. NJ-1235.2
  132. CT-435.4
  133. NY-635.8
  134. CA-236.0
  135. CA-2836.2
  136. NJ-836.4
  137. CA-2436.4
  138. MA-236.4
  139. UT-136.4
  140. CT-136.9
  141. WA-137.4
  142. CA-3237.6
  143. AZ-738.0
  144. VT-AL38.4
  145. MI-638.8
  146. TX-2039.0
  147. WA-239.2
  148. NY-2639.7
  149. CA-1839.8
  150. TX-2940.0
  151. PA-541.6
  152. IL-142.7
  153. RI-142.8
  154. NY-1443.2
  155. TX-3343.6
  156. CA-2944.8
  157. NC-244.8
  158. CA-845.0
  159. CA-1045.0
  160. IL-245.0
  161. VA-1145.0
  162. HI-245.3
  163. IL-345.4
  164. MD-545.6
  165. MN-445.6
  166. VA-445.9
  167. CA-1946.0
  168. CA-1446.6
  169. IL-946.6
  170. CA-4447.0
  171. FL-2047.2
  172. IL-447.2
  173. MA-447.2
  174. NY-748.2
  175. IL-548.8
  176. FL-2449.6
  177. CA-1750.6
  178. CA-3650.6
  179. MA-850.6
  180. OH-351.0
  181. VA-351.0
  182. WI-251.0
  183. CO-251.1
  184. IN-751.1
  185. NY-1651.3
  186. HI-151.4
  187. CA-3051.6
  188. MA-651.8
  189. OR-152.1
  190. MA-352.2
  191. PA-253.6
  192. OR-354.2
  193. GA-1354.4
  194. MI-1355.8
  195. NC-455.8
  196. AZ-355.9
  197. MI-1256.0
  198. NC-1256.4
  199. MA-557.0
  200. LA-257.2
  201. TX-3057.4
  202. NY-557.4
  203. VA-858.4
  204. NY-959.6
  205. CA-1559.8
  206. GA-659.8
  207. CA-1659.8
  208. MN-561.0
  209. CA-4361.2
  210. NY-861.2
  211. GA-461.6
  212. NY-1263.4
  213. CA-3463.4
  214. NY-1563.5
  215. NJ-1063.7
  216. WI-464.0
  217. TX-1864.4
  218. OH-1165.6
  219. CO-166.3
  220. TX-3767.8
  221. MD-867.9
  222. MO-168.7
  223. MA-769.2
  224. NY-1069.7
  225. CA-3772.0
  226. NY-1372.1
  227. MD-774.6
  228. IL-776.2
  229. WA-778.4
  230. CA-1180.2
  231. GA-581.2
  232. CA-1287.2
  233. MD-487.2
  234. WA-999.2
  235. PA-3100.0

Republican

200—
  1. AZ-20.2
  2. OH-150.4
  3. WI-10.4
  4. TX-350.6
  5. FL-40.8
  6. FL-71.0
  7. FL-131.0
  8. MO-21.2
  9. FL-161.2
  10. CA-401.4
  11. MI-41.4
  12. CO-41.8
  13. AL-22.0
  14. TX-152.2
  15. IA-22.3
  16. TX-232.4
  17. FL-272.6
  18. PA-12.6
  19. VA-12.6
  20. AZ-82.8
  21. NC-32.8
  22. AR-23.2
  23. CO-53.2
  24. FL-113.6
  25. NY-23.7
  26. NC-74.0
  27. NC-144.0
  28. OH-84.0
  29. SC-14.2
  30. VA-54.4
  31. WI-84.4
  32. FL-124.6
  33. NC-94.6
  34. TX-244.6
  35. FL-95.0
  36. NC-135.0
  37. FL-215.2
  38. FL-185.8
  39. MN-85.8
  40. FL-86.2
  41. NC-66.2
  42. FL-266.6
  43. NJ-26.6
  44. MN-16.8
  45. NC-56.8
  46. NC-107.0
  47. IN-57.4
  48. CA-238.2
  49. KY-68.2
  50. AK-AL8.4
  51. NC-88.4
  52. TX-328.4
  53. TX-388.6
  54. KS-28.7
  55. SC-28.8
  56. TN-98.8
  57. FL-159.0
  58. NY-219.0
  59. OH-149.2
  60. TX-59.2
  61. TN-89.4
  62. TX-279.4
  63. CA-59.6
  64. NE-19.6
  65. TX-109.6
  66. FL-39.8
  67. TN-79.8
  68. TX-229.8
  69. TX-910.0
  70. GA-1210.2
  71. TX-2110.2
  72. WA-510.2
  73. AZ-510.4
  74. FL-510.4
  75. TX-1710.4
  76. TN-510.5
  77. FL-1710.8
  78. TX-210.8
  79. TX-3110.8
  80. MI-110.9
  81. OK-511.0
  82. NY-2311.2
  83. TX-611.4
  84. NY-1111.4
  85. FL-211.8
  86. GA-111.8
  87. NY-2411.9
  88. MD-112.2
  89. SC-412.2
  90. OH-512.6
  91. TX-2612.6
  92. TX-312.8
  93. TX-2512.8
  94. TN-413.0
  95. TX-1213.0
  96. TX-1413.0
  97. WI-613.2
  98. TX-413.6
  99. GA-1013.8
  100. OK-113.9
  101. TX-3614.0
  102. FL-2814.3
  103. MN-614.4
  104. MO-314.8
  105. GA-715.0
  106. SC-515.0
  107. PA-1115.2
  108. TN-615.4
  109. TX-816.0
  110. GA-1416.4
  111. PA-1616.6
  112. WI-716.6
  113. SC-716.8
  114. IN-217.8
  115. AL-518.0
  116. FL-1918.0
  117. VA-618.0
  118. WI-518.2
  119. OH-1218.4
  120. UT-218.4
  121. ID-218.5
  122. LA-618.6
  123. FL-618.8
  124. KS-419.4
  125. AZ-919.8
  126. OR-220.7
  127. CA-2021.0
  128. MT-221.2
  129. IN-921.3
  130. UT-421.6
  131. AR-321.6
  132. GA-321.8
  133. IN-621.8
  134. IA-422.0
  135. GA-1122.2
  136. LA-522.2
  137. PA-1422.4
  138. MI-522.5
  139. LA-422.8
  140. TN-222.8
  141. MI-223.0
  142. IN-323.2
  143. OH-623.2
  144. IN-423.5
  145. AL-623.6
  146. TX-1123.6
  147. AL-124.6
  148. TN-324.7
  149. LA-325.0
  150. NV-225.1
  151. NJ-425.1
  152. FL-126.0
  153. OK-426.5
  154. MI-926.8
  155. GA-827.0
  156. GA-927.0
  157. LA-127.0
  158. KS-127.4
  159. IN-828.0
  160. MS-128.6
  161. WV-129.7
  162. ID-130.0
  163. MN-730.0
  164. PA-930.0
  165. OH-230.6
  166. WV-230.6
  167. UT-331.0
  168. OH-431.6
  169. SD-AL31.6
  170. PA-1531.8
  171. MO-632.6
  172. MO-433.5
  173. VA-934.0
  174. MO-734.1
  175. AR-434.6
  176. KY-235.0
  177. TX-1335.0
  178. AL-335.2
  179. WY-AL35.2
  180. SC-335.8
  181. ND-AL36.2
  182. MS-436.8
  183. IL-1237.2
  184. PA-1337.2
  185. TX-138.0
  186. KY-138.2
  187. AR-138.3
  188. TX-1939.6
  189. OK-242.2
  190. MO-843.2
  191. TN-146.4
  192. NE-349.3
  193. AL-453.6
  194. WA-486.8
  195. IL-1587.4
  196. IL-1687.4
  197. KY-487.4
  198. KY-587.4
  199. MS-387.4
  200. OK-387.4

How to read it

The map shows the winner of every riding in your scenario. Seats remain an approximation anchored to the published run; moving a slider does not rerun the full model.

The editorial rule

Your scenario remains separate from the Vote-Scope projection. It is never stored as a new forecast and never changes site data.