Federal by-election · Ontario · expected
The first one that is actually in play.
A seat the Conservatives held by eleven points is the closest race of the eight — not because the departing member took much with him, but because the Conservative vote has fallen roughly nine points nationally since April 2025, and by-election turnout has been running against them all year.
Resignation announced · seat not yet vacant
The Vote-Scope forecast
Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)
The riding’s general-election projection still has the Conservatives ahead, and the by-election projection does not. That gap is the model working, not failing: the two answer different questions. A general election turns out everybody; a by-election turns out whoever is still motivated, and that differential costs the demobilised side. Liberal-held seats paid it through 2024, when the Liberals were the unpopular ones. With the Conservative vote down roughly nine points nationally since April 2025, Conservative-held seats pay it now. Add a small personal-vote strip for a departing member and the seat crosses over.
How this projection is built
Personal vote removed
3 points stripped from the Conservative baseline — the share that belonged to Larry Brock rather than to the party.
42.3 % → 39.3 %
By-election turnout residual
Measured on April 13, 2026: at equal national swing, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by about as much. Opposition voters stay home; government voters turn out.
Conservative -2.8 · Liberal +3.1
2025 result — the seat as it was won
Why this by-election exists
- Larry Brock announced on August 6, 2026 that he will resign effective September 18, to return to the Crown attorney’s office in Brantford.
- He is the seventh MP to leave the Conservative caucus since the 2025 election — four of them crossed to the Liberals.
- Conservative share versus the Ontario-wide Conservative vote: +5.8 points in 2015 and +7.2 in 2019, both before Brock was elected. The premium predates him, so little of it is personal.
No polling day yet
Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.
Sources