Résultat confirmé · 31 août 2026

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

Daniel Gobeil arrache Chicoutimi—Le Fjord aux conservateurs. Vote-Scope donnait le libéral favori à 79,8 % et au-dessus de 40 % — le résultat a confirmé le sens, mais l'ampleur nous a échappé.

Result

Winner Liberal · Daniel Gobeil 51.3%

Liberal — Daniel Gobeil 51.3% ✓

Bloc Québécois — Caroline Dubé 32.9%

Conservative — Régis Gaudreault 12.5%

NDP — Raphaël Émond 2.0%

Green — Nathe Perrone 0.7%

People's Party — François Sabourin 0.6%

Turnout 42.2%

Margin +18.4 pts

The only genuine contest of the three, and a Liberal gain from the Conservatives. Vote-Scope projected the Liberal ahead of the Bloc 41.3 to 37.3 with a 79.8% win probability; the count gave 51.3 to 32.9. Against the other public models, this was the clearest call and the closest: Canada Projections published 49.8% against 48.6% — a literal coin flip — 338Canada had 35 ±7 against 34 ±7, and Evan Scrimshaw 36.7 against 34.8. Vote-Scope was the only one above 40% for the Liberal, and the closest on every party: 10.1 points of error on the Liberal share against 14.6 to 16.3 for the others, and 2.7 on the Conservative against 8.7 to 13.5. That Conservative collapse was anticipated — 15.1% projected against 12.5% counted — but its vote went almost entirely to the Liberals rather than splitting, which is where the projection erred. Source: Elections Canada preliminary returns, 212 of 212 polls.