Ontario by-election · September 3, 2026

The seat he built.

The Progressive Conservatives ran 11.7 points behind their provincial score here in 2018. Under Neil Lumsden — a former CFL player and Tiger-Cats executive — that deficit shrank to 0.9 points by 2025. He is gone, the party is carrying a scandal, and the Ontario Liberals now lead province-wide.

Writ issued · polling day set

Live results

Connecting to the official count…

Preliminary results · Elections Ontario

The Vote-Scope forecast

Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)

Jeff Beattie Progressive Conservative

33.8 % Chance of winning: 48 %

Heino Doessing Ontario Liberal

30.6 % Chance of winning: 33 %

Monique Taylor Ontario NDP

27.4 % Chance of winning: 20 %

Other

4.8 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Pascale Marchand Ontario Green

3.4 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Seven points are stripped from the Progressive Conservative baseline — the share that tracked Lumsden rather than his party. No by-election turnout residual is applied: the one Vote-Scope has measured comes from the April 2026 federal by-elections, and transposing a federal measurement to a provincial contest would be an assumption, not a finding.

The local poll

Ontario NDP

38 %

Progressive Conservative

34 %

Ontario Liberal

20 %

Other

5 %

Ontario Green

3 %

Ekos · 2026-08-24 · n=355

This poll is not averaged onto the model afterwards: it is anchored inside the riding's baseline, where it carries about < 1 % of the weight before the simulation runs. Its information then flows through the national draws, the estimated correlations between parties and the local swing elasticities. The weight rises as further polls arrive, with their sample size and recency.

A single firm, a single wave. Sample size, margin of error and collection method were never published. Treated with wide uncertainty.

How this projection is built

Personal vote removed

7 points stripped from the Progressive Conservative baseline — the share that belonged to Neil Lumsden rather than to the party.

40.0 % → 33.0 %

2025 result — the seat as it was won

Progressive Conservative 42.1 %

Ontario Liberal 31.6 %

Ontario NDP 17.6 %

Ontario Green 5.3 %

Other 3.5 %

43.8 %

Why this by-election exists

Neil Lumsden left the Ford cabinet amid the hotel controversy and then resigned his seat.
Progressive Conservative share versus their province-wide score: +2.9 points (2011), −4.2 (2014), −11.7 (2018) — the riding leaned AGAINST them before he arrived.
After Lumsden won in 2022 the deficit closed: −6.2 (2022), then −0.9 (2025). Roughly seven points recovered by a locally famous sports figure.
The Progressive Conservative candidate is Hamilton Ward 10 councillor Jeff Beattie; the Liberals renominated Heino Doessing, who lost to Lumsden in 2025.

Sources