Monday, November 2, 2026
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House · #2

CA-22

Latino electorate · Candidate representation

Index72/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 83%
Latino citizens of voting age64%
7-day change+7.3

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
100

Competitiveness

20% · model
34

Flip probability

15% · model
83

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
100

Control importance

10% · model
100

Recent movement

10% · model
49

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
30

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 24, 2026 Nov 2, 2026