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House · #25

CA-48

Flip probability · Latino electorate

Index41/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 91%
Latino citizens of voting age25%
7-day change+1.4

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
49

Competitiveness

20% · model
18

Flip probability

15% · model
91

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0

Control importance

10% · model
96

Recent movement

10% · model
9

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
30

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % May 26, 2026 Nov 2, 2026