Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

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House · #6

CO-8

Latino electorate · Flip probability

Index58/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 81%
Latino citizens of voting age31%
7-day change+2.8

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
61

Competitiveness

20% · model
38

Flip probability

15% · model
81

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
70

Control importance

10% · model
100

Recent movement

10% · model
19

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
36

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 24, 2026 Nov 2, 2026