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House · #16

FL-14

Flip probability · Recent movement

Index38.7/100
Model favoriteDem. 94%
Latino CVAP22.6%
7-day move+41.7

Index breakdown

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
45.2

Competitiveness

20% · model
11.7

Flip probability

15% · model
94.1

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0.0

Control importance

10% · model
0.0

Recent movement

10% · model
100.0

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
31.9

Race history

Race history

2026-03-24 2026-09-16