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House · #9

FL-22

Competitiveness · Flip probability

Index44.4/100
Model favoriteDem. 68%
Latino CVAP20.4%
7-day move+59.0

Index breakdown

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
40.9

Competitiveness

20% · model
63.8

Flip probability

15% · model
68.1

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0.0

Control importance

10% · model
0.0

Recent movement

10% · model
100.0

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
31.9

Race history

Race history

2026-03-24 2026-09-16