Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

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House · #19

NY-1

Competitiveness · Flip probability

Index43/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 57%
Latino citizens of voting age10%
7-day change+3.3

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
21

Competitiveness

20% · model
85

Flip probability

15% · model
57

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0

Control importance

10% · model
79

Recent movement

10% · model
22

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
26

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 24, 2026 Nov 2, 2026