Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

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House · #3

TX-15

Latino electorate · Competitiveness

Index72/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 51%
Latino citizens of voting age75%
7-day change+1.6

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
100

Competitiveness

20% · model
97

Flip probability

15% · model
51

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
100

Control importance

10% · model
71

Recent movement

10% · model
11

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
15

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 28, 2026 Nov 2, 2026