Monday, November 2, 2026
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House · #4

TX-23

Latino electorate · Competitiveness

Index60/100
Favourite and chance of winningRep. 60%
Latino citizens of voting age58%
7-day change-1.6

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
100

Competitiveness

20% · model
81

Flip probability

15% · model
40

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
70

Control importance

10% · model
49

Recent movement

10% · model
11

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
15

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Jul 22, 2026 Nov 2, 2026