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Senate · #1

Texas

Competitiveness · Latino electorate

Index57.6/100
Model favoriteDem. 66%
Latino CVAP31.6%
7-day move+20.3

Index breakdown

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
63.3

Competitiveness

20% · model
68.5

Flip probability

15% · model
65.8

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0.0

Control importance

10% · model
99.2

Recent movement

10% · model
100.0

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
14.6

Race history

Race history

2026-03-24 2026-09-16