Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

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Senate · #10

Texas

Competitiveness · Latino electorate

Index52/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 67%
Latino citizens of voting age32%
7-day change+7.2

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
63

Competitiveness

20% · model
65

Flip probability

15% · model
67

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0

Control importance

10% · model
99

Recent movement

10% · model
48

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
15

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 24, 2026 Nov 2, 2026