Riding profile
Matane-Matapédia
The question
Matane-Matapédia: a safe seat for the PQ?
Editorial read
Matane-Matapédia, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 84% vote share, against 7% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pascal Bérubé
Sits with PQ
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 76.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | PCQ | PLQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMatane-Matapédia | 84.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +54.3 | 13.2% −5.8 | 27.2% −22.3 | 20.3% −18.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Bérubé Elected | PQ | 20,057 | 67.4 | — |
| Jean-Sébastien Barriault | CAQ | 5,163 | 17.4 | — |
| Alexandre Leblanc | PCQ | 2,316 | 7.8 | — |
| Marie-Phare Boucher | QS | 1,450 | 4.9 | — |
| Harley Ryan Lounsbury | PLQ | 637 | 2.1 | — |
| Madeleine Rose | Other | 123 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026