Riding profile

Matane-Matapédia

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Matane-Matapédia: a safe seat for the PQ?

Editorial read

Matane-Matapédia, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 84% vote share, against 7% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascal Bérubé

Sits with PQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
76.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 84.3%
  • PCQ 7.4%
  • PLQ 4.9%
  • CAQ 2.2%
  • QS 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PCQ PLQ CAQ
HereMatane-Matapédia 84.3%7.4%4.9%2.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +54.3 13.2% −5.8 27.2% −22.3 20.3% −18.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
PQ
Margin
50.1 pts
Turnout
64.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+26.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pascal Bérubé Elected PQ 20,057 67.4
Jean-Sébastien Barriault CAQ 5,163 17.4
Alexandre Leblanc PCQ 2,316 7.8
Marie-Phare Boucher QS 1,450 4.9
Harley Ryan Lounsbury PLQ 637 2.1
Madeleine Rose Other 123 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026