Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emmanuel TACHE DE LA PAGERIE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 51.4%
  • Left (NFP) 29.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.9%
  • LR and allies 6.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription 51.4%29.2%9.9%6.6%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +7.4 32.3% −3.1 14.1% −4.1 5.9% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +15.4 29.5% −0.3 20.6% −10.6 12.2% −5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emmanuel TACHE DE LA PAGERIE Elected RN and allies 28,179 47.1 —
Nicolas KOUKAS Left (NFP) 17,896 29.9 —
Marion BISCIONE Centre (Ensemble) 8,900 14.9 —
Alain BERNARDET LR and allies 3,217 5.4 —
Florent SEDDIK RN and allies 712 1.2 —
Guy DUBOST Far left 505 0.8 —
Samir BOUZIANI Greens 396 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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