Riding profile

Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Vaucluse

The question

Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Vaucluse, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 39% for the RN and its allies, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Raphaël ARNAULT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Competitive

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
25%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 42.0%
  • RN and allies 38.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.1%
  • LR and allies 4.5%
  • Others 2.9%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVaucluse — 1ère circonscription 42.0%38.8%11.1%4.5%
Provincial averageVaucluse 26.2% +15.9 50.4% −11.6 13.0% −1.9 7.2% −2.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +12.6 36.0% +2.8 20.6% −9.5 12.2% −7.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine JAOUEN RN and allies 15,598 34.6 —
Raphaël ARNAULT Elected Left (NFP) 11,155 24.8 —
Philippe PASCAL Left (NFP) 8,229 18.3 —
Malika DI FRAJA Centre (Ensemble) 7,264 16.1 —
Johan COURTOIS LR and allies 1,459 3.2 —
Philippe TOUTAIN RN and allies 594 1.3 —
Christine CHATENAY Others 391 0.9 —
Eddine GHOUALI Far left 361 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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