Riding profile

Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vaucluse

The question

Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vaucluse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 57% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hervé DE LÉPINAU

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 57.5%
  • Left (NFP) 19.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.0%
  • LR and allies 7.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVaucluse — 3ème circonscription 57.5%19.9%12.0%7.4%
Provincial averageVaucluse 50.4% +7.1 26.2% −6.3 13.0% −1.0 7.2% +0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +21.5 29.5% −9.6 20.6% −8.6 12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+37.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hervé DE LÉPINAU Elected RN and allies 28,153 53.5 —
Muriel DUENAS Left (NFP) 10,895 20.7 —
Souad ZITOUNI Centre (Ensemble) 8,947 17.0 —
Christophe TONNAIRE LR and allies 3,284 6.2 —
Bertrand HELLEU Far left 671 1.3 —
Louis ROUSSEL RN and allies 662 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next