Riding profile

Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vaucluse

The question

Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vaucluse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bénédicte AUZANOT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.4%
  • Left (NFP) 24.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.4%
  • LR and allies 8.1%
  • Others 2.1%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVaucluse — 2ème circonscription 50.4%24.0%14.4%8.1%
Provincial averageVaucluse 50.4% +0.1 26.2% −2.2 13.0% +1.4 7.2% +0.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.5 29.5% −5.5 20.6% −6.2 12.2% −4.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+26.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bénédicte AUZANOT Elected RN and allies 26,667 46.0 —
Patrick BLANES Left (NFP) 14,421 24.9 —
Sylvie VIALA Centre (Ensemble) 11,260 19.4 —
Dominique BROGI LR and allies 4,008 6.9 —
Julien LANGARD RN and allies 999 1.7 —
Gérard MANGIAVILLANO Far left 590 1.0 —
José-Angel SANCHEZ Others 84 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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