Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 22% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Romain TONUSSI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.8%
  • Left (NFP) 19.3%
  • LR and allies 5.7%
  • Greens 2.1%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription 48.6%21.8%19.3%5.7%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +4.6 14.1% +7.7 32.3% −12.9 5.9% −0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.6 20.6% +1.2 29.5% −10.1 12.2% −6.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+26.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Romain TONUSSI Elected RN and allies 30,987 44.6 —
Jean-Marc ZULESI Centre (Ensemble) 18,563 26.7 —
Alexandre BEDDOCK Left (NFP) 13,938 20.1 —
Stéphanie VOLPINI LR and allies 3,105 4.5 —
Céline FANFAN Greens 1,882 2.7 —
Jeanne VIGIER RN and allies 617 0.9 —
Rémy BAZZALI Far left 342 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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