Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marc PENA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 16.3
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 43.0%
Left (NFP) 26.6%
Centre (Ensemble) 21.2%
LR and allies 5.3%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.4%
Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription	43.0%	26.6%	21.2%	5.3%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône	44.0% −1.0	32.3% −5.6	14.1% +7.2	5.9% −0.6
National averageFrance	36.0% +7.0	29.5% −2.8	20.6% +0.6	12.2% −6.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+16.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Hervé FABRE-AUBRESPY	RN and allies	24,524	38.9	—
Marc PENA Elected	Left (NFP)	17,374	27.5	—
Mohamed LAQHILA	Centre (Ensemble)	16,581	26.3	—
Fayçal ZERGUINE	LR and allies	2,562	4.1	—
Michel BAYLE	Sovereignists	837	1.3	—
Jean François MEBTOUCHE	RN and allies	835	1.3	—
Charlotte MARIA	Far left	382	0.6	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next