Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 35% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gisèle LELOUIS

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.8%
  • Left (NFP) 34.9%
  • LR and allies 7.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 6.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription 47.8%34.9%7.0%6.7%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +3.8 32.3% +2.7 5.9% +1.1 14.1% −7.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.8 29.5% +5.5 12.2% −5.3 20.6% −13.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gisèle LELOUIS Elected RN and allies 19,938 42.8 —
Amine KESSACI Left (NFP) 16,642 35.7 —
Celine AYCARD-DIESTE Centre (Ensemble) 5,417 11.6 —
Pierre-Olivier KOUBI-FLOTTE LR and allies 2,664 5.7 —
Bernard FOURNIER RN and allies 937 2.0 —
Jacqueline GRANDEL Far left 402 0.9 —
Alexia DE MONTGOLFIER Greens 381 0.8 —
Juliette COLEOU Far left 262 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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