Riding profile
Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription
The question
Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 67% vote share, against 19% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Manuel BOMPARD
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 47.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription | 66.8% | 19.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 32.3% +34.5 | 44.0% −25.0 | 14.1% −8.0 | 5.9% −2.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +37.3 | 36.0% −17.0 | 20.6% −14.5 | 12.2% −8.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel BOMPARD Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,712 | 67.5 | — |
| Aurélie QUINQUIS | RN and allies | 5,973 | 15.1 | — |
| Malika TORCHI | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,370 | 11.0 | — |
| Carime IGO | LR and allies | 830 | 2.1 | — |
| Anthony DEMONT | Greens | 723 | 1.8 | — |
| Florian TREVISAN | RN and allies | 323 | 0.8 | — |
| Isabelle BONNET | Far left | 256 | 0.7 | — |
| Leila BEHAIRI | Greens | 204 | 0.5 | — |
| Stéphane PERNICE | Far left | 178 | 0.5 | — |
| Kylian Jacky Jean-Luc VISAGE | Others | 11 | 0.0 | — |
| Lea Felice FERRANDI | Others | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| Eva-Françoise FAYE | Left (NFP) | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next