Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Laurent LHARDIT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability: 87%
Mean margin (pts): 7.8
P(close race): 23%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 36.8%
Left (NFP) 29.0%
Centre (Ensemble) 21.9%
LR and allies 9.9%
Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription	36.8%	29.0%	21.9%	9.9%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône	44.0% −7.2	32.3% −3.2	14.1% +7.9	5.9% +4.0
National averageFrance	36.0% +0.8	29.5% −0.5	20.6% +1.4	12.2% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+7.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Olivier RIOULT	RN and allies	18,836	32.1	—
Laurent LHARDIT Elected	Left (NFP)	16,740	28.5	—
Claire PITOLLAT	Centre (Ensemble)	15,870	27.0	—
Laure-Agnès CARADEC	LR and allies	5,100	8.7	—
Jean-Marc GRAFFEO	RN and allies	1,130	1.9	—
Hugo ROCHE POGGI	Left (NFP)	847	1.4	—
Claudine RODINSON	Far left	229	0.4	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next