Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Monique GRISETI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.9%
  • Left (NFP) 26.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 18.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription 49.9%26.0%18.6%2.0%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +5.9 32.3% −6.3 14.1% +4.5 2.1% −0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.9 29.5% −3.5 20.6% −2.0 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Monique GRISETI Elected RN and allies 24,276 45.5 —
Pascaline LÉCORCHÉ Left (NFP) 14,340 26.9 —
Sabrina AGRESTI-ROUBACHE Centre (Ensemble) 12,585 23.6 —
Salomé MOYAL RN and allies 867 1.6 —
Céline CARAVELLAZI Sovereignists 842 1.6 —
Marc CECONE Far left 402 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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