Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 47% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hendrik DAVI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 47.0%
  • RN and allies 30.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.9%
  • LR and allies 6.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription 47.0%30.0%12.9%6.4%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 32.3% +14.7 44.0% −14.0 14.1% −1.1 5.9% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +17.5 36.0% −6.0 20.6% −7.6 12.2% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Franck LIQUORI RN and allies 12,938 25.8 —
Hendrik DAVI Elected Left (NFP) 12,271 24.4 —
Allan POPELARD Left (NFP) 11,706 23.3 —
Maxime BOUDET Centre (Ensemble) 8,985 17.9 —
Ambroise MALINCONI LR and allies 2,576 5.1 —
Barthélémy PLEZ Greens 865 1.7 —
Marcel BLANC RN and allies 598 1.2 —
Nathalie MALHOLE Far left 264 0.5 —
Pierre-Frédéric ZIEBA Others 3 0.0 —
Pauline PAPAZIAN Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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