Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

José GONZALEZ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.2%
  • Left (NFP) 20.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.6%
  • LR and allies 4.7%
  • Greens 2.8%
  • Others 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription 53.2%20.1%16.6%4.7%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +9.2 32.3% −12.2 14.1% +2.5 5.9% −1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.2 29.5% −9.4 20.6% −4.0 12.2% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+33.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
José GONZALEZ Elected RN and allies 37,672 48.8 —
Véronique BOURCET-GINER Centre (Ensemble) 16,619 21.5 —
Jimmy BESSAIH Left (NFP) 16,050 20.8 —
Stephan PIERRACCINI LR and allies 2,642 3.4 —
Lucie DESBLANCS Greens 2,613 3.4 —
Jean-Philippe COURTARO RN and allies 1,031 1.3 —
Frédéric KECHRA Far left 314 0.4 —
Hassan TAHIRI Others 208 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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